Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Prepare for wet conditions and challenging travel on Saturday. Uncertainty regarding the amount of rainfall and the likelihood of natural avalanche activity is high. Minimize spent time under big, steep slopes. If you observe heavy rainfall or see fresh avalanches, then assume the danger is High and avoid all avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    You could see wet loose avalanches initiating in steep rocky and treed terrain. A cornice could shed off the ridgeline and trigger a slab on the slope below. The whole snowpack could slip off a rock slab as a glide avalanche. The largest avalanches will probably come from upper elevations where there are still dry layers to react to rain and warming. Or you might not see anything other than wet, sloppy snow.

    Given weather and snow conditions, there probably won’t be many good reasons to travel on steep slopes. So what’s above is the main concern. Stay tuned into weather conditions - the harder it rains and the warmer it gets, the more likely snow will fall down the mountain. If you start seeing - or hearing - avalanches, then it might just be time to head for home.

    (1/14/2022)

    Wet avalanches are unpredictable and nasty. Don't be in the way. 

    Photo: Graham Clark

Avalanche Discussion

The biggest point of uncertainty for Saturday is the timing and amount of rainfall. If rain tapers by the morning and then holds off until late afternoon, then natural avalanche activity should be less in both quantity and size. Continued warm temperatures mean natural avalanches are still possible. On the other hand, heavy rainfall basically equals High avalanche danger with extensive natural avalanche activity expected.

Observers in West North found plenty of signs of avalanche activity from the last week, with most of it probably occurring during the first warm-up overnight on Friday the 19th. The snow surface was capped with crust from 4200’ to at least 5600’. By noon the crust had melted out down low and left backcountry travelers to contend with wet, mushy snow. Most new snow layers were moist and well-bonded. Dry wind slab layers were found up high and produced clean shears in hand pits. No other signs of instability were noted despite testing plenty of wind-loaded pockets and features.

Rollerballs and small wet loose avalanches were reported from Snoqualmie Pass. No fresh observations came out of Stevens Pass on Friday.

Low-elevation terrain has seen 3-5” of rain and the remaining snowpack is quite wetted-out. While avalanche activity at that elevation is mostly limited to snow shedding from cliffs, there is still a risk of a larger avalanche at mid-elevations running lower in the terrain. At higher elevations, that same precipitation fell as snow with 3’ or more falling in some areas in the last week. 

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