Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is CONSIDERABLE above 2000 feet and moderate below.   Strong north winds will continue to redeposit fresh snow from last weekend, making human triggered avalanches likely 1-4+ feet in depth.  Natural avalanches are possible.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday- Sunday at 8 am

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist today.  The combination of a significant amount of dry snow from recent snowfall events and strong North winds will continue to build deep windslabs that are expected to be reactive to human triggers today 1-4+ feet in depth.  On 1/29 wind slabs were observed to be reactive on specific slopes at mid elevation , North of Thompson Pass.  These specific slopes included cross-loaded terrain and lee side of terrain features that were affected by Northeast wind.  Upper elevation ridges had visual signs of widespread flagging.

    North winds have been steadily increasing overnight and will likely peak today.  This will form wind slabs in more places and build the depth of slabs that have already formed.  The stiffness of these slabs will also be on the increase which will allow for wider avalanche propagation.  Pay attention to the direction of the wind and translate that information into what slopes will be loaded.  Try to plan your route today to avoid these slopes.  Wind slabs will have a hollow drum-like feel today and shooting cracks or collapsing are red flags that indicate that a slope has the energy to produce an avalanche.

    Seek out wind-sheltered terrain for better stability and riding quality.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

Very little natural avalanche activity has been observed. 

On 1/26, a D3 natural avalanche on Town Mountain deposited debris on the bench just above the crooked creek cabin.

Forecast Discussion:

As we say goodbye to the nearly continous rain and snowfall of January we say hello to our well known friend the North wind.  This transition was nearly seamless yesterday as the wind began just as the last snowflakes fell.  This pattern change is not uncommon for our area, but what is uncommon is the significant amount of dry snow available for transport.

The amount of snow available for transport combined with North winds gusting to 60 mph will create deep wind slabs that are expected to remain sensitive to human triggers today.  At upper elevations wind slabs may exist not just below ridgelines as pockets, but may be found further down the slope than what is typically found.  These slabs will heal with time as they stiffen and gain strength, but in the meantime  DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST.

On 1/29 in protected areas the new snow from last weekend was found to be a settled depth of 50cm with good structure and bonding observed.  Seek out wind-sheltered terrain for better riding conditions and stability.

Below 2000' the hazard will be lower as rain mixed with snow during last weekends storm.  This has limited the snow available for transport and the liquid water that existed in the snowpack is in the process of freezing and gaining strength as temperatures continue to plummet.

Additional Information:

In addition to avalanche hazard, very cold air temps along with strong winds will create dangerous wind chill values.  Be prepared with the proper gear as -45° F wind chills are expected today on Thompson Pass.

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located above the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 1/30 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow January Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    0    30           Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O    300+    ~500 Nicks    0    0    161    N/O N/O 46 Mile    0     0   22    13 N/O

Regions covered