Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Keep an eye out for new wind slabs on the lee sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies. Westerly winds are strong at ridgeline elevations, and total snow accumulations are expected to average in the 1 to 3-inch range once a cold front moves through the area early this morning. Otherwise, normal caution conditions can be expected during your hunt for soft snow surfaces to ski and ride. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    New snow is accumulating early this morning, and strong westerly winds at ridgeline elevations are accompanying that snow.  There isn't much snow available for transport, so any developing slabs are expected to be small in size. The specific locations to keep an eye out for new slab development would be on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in crossloaded gullies. 

    An example of shooting cracks along a wind-loaded ridgeline from earlier this winter. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Slabs up to several feet thick have become isolated and difficult to trigger. You are unlikely to see signs of instability before triggering an avalanche that breaks on old weak layers.  The most concerning terrain features are where old, drifted slabs are thin near their margins, convexities, or rocky areas. You can reliably avoid the problem on slope angles less than 30 degrees without steeper slopes above you, and wind-protected terrain generally lacks the problem.  

    This hard slab was triggered near Pearl Pass on Monday.  It is just beyond the CBAC's Southeast Mountain forecast zone boundary.  It is evidence of a lingering yet unlikely slab avalanche problem.

    Photo: CAIC

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack has gained stability with recent cold temperatures following a wet avalanche cycle and a period of above-average temperatures early this week. With continued cold temperatures in the forecast, our focus has shifted to new avalanche problems.  1 to 3 inches of new snow is hardly enough to make a new wind slab avalanche problem, and there wasn't any old snow available for transport into these new slabs. Perhaps a few areas will see 4 inches or more. Wouldn't that be nice? Either way, the travel advice will remain the same: keep an eye out for new wind slab development. Otherwise, happy hunting for those elusive soft snow surfaces. 

The old Persistent Slab problem is unlikely due to an isolated nature across the landscape and a difficult-to-trigger sensitivity.  You can find old, hard slabs of snow below ridge tops, cross-loaded in gullies, and pressed into concave features.  They often appear smoother and feel harder than the surrounding snow.  A few slabs released during the warmup at the start of the week. Otherwise, the only other recent activity releasing into old snow was this skier-triggered hard slab just outside the CBAC forecast boundary near Pearl Pass on 2/3. 

For more on last week's weather and avalanche events, check out the weekly summary here. 

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