Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Carefully evaluate for instabilities in the recently drifted snow before riding in steep, consequential terrain.  You're most likely to trigger an avalanche on windloaded slopes below ridges or in gullies at higher elevations.  There is a small chance that an avalanche will break deeper in the snowpack.  Wind-sheltered terrain offers lower-risk riding.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    In the Southeast Mountains, 6" to 10" of recent snow has drifted into soft slabs over crusts and facets in leeward terrain.  Manage for instabilities in the drifted snow by assessing for slab formation and terrain consequences before riding in wind loaded terrain.  Look for thicker, denser drifts and cracking in the snow to identify the problem.  Seek out wind protected terrain to avoid the problem.  

    A thin slab that ran around 2/11 on the Aspen side.

    Photo: Morgan Boyles  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Old hard slabs up to several feet thick are isolated and difficult to trigger. You are unlikely to see signs of instability before triggering an avalanche that breaks on old, weak layers. The most likely trigger points would be where these hard slabs thin near their margins, on convexities, or near rocky areas. Recent snowfall and wind drifting may have obscured the surface clues, making identification of old, hard slabs difficult: they're most likely lurking in concave features at higher elevations on colder aspects.

    This hard slab was triggered near Pearl Pass on 2/3.  This location is just beyond the CBAC's Southeast Mountain forecast boundary. 

    Photo: CAIC

Avalanche Discussion

Last night's snow brought settled storm depths up to 14" at Purple Ridge, 10" on Mt. Emmons, and around 6" east of town.  Though slabs are still in their infancy and gradual loading has limited instabilities from becoming widespread, on some slopes, you'll be able to trigger avalanches involving the recent snow.  Drifted features remain the most problematic.  The problem may now be creeping into wind-sheltered terrain in favored parts of the Northwest Mountains, especially near treeline on northerly aspects where the storm interface is most fragile.  This video gives a quick look at what the snow is accumulating on below treeline.

The old hard slabs we've been advertising for weeks are feeling more stressed under this week's new snow, and they are becoming trickier to manage because this week's snowfall has disguised their locations.  A few riders have stumbled across the problem recently near Marble and Aspen. Instabilities in the new snow could step down if they run over one of those old slabs.  Moving to southerly aspects or wind-sheltered slopes is the most reliable way to avoid surprises.  

Though the colors haven't changed yet, the avalanche danger is rising compared to earlier this weekend. In snowfall-favored parts of the zone, the snowpack may be nearing a natural tipping point on some slopes.  The danger will rise dramatically on Friday due to heavy snowfall punching our weak and meager snowpack squarely in the face.  

Upcoming Event - Open the storm floodgates with the Floodgate Operators at the Public House on Saturday, February 15. Tickets are available here.  Proceeds from the show to benefit the CBAC.

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