Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The likelihood of triggering an avalanche will increase throughout the day.   New snow and wind-blown snow will begin to stress a weak upper snowpack in many locations.   Make a conservative travel plan that limits your exposure to terrain that could produce avalanches.

This forecast is sponsored by Flow State Handyman.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds out of the South-Southwest will deposit new snow below leeward ridgelines and cross-load mid-slope features.  Look out for rippled and dense slabs of snow that may crack around your boards or machine.  6-8" of new snow is forecasted to fall in the Blues by the end of the day.   Winds are forecasted to gust into the mid-30 mph range.  When we get winds this strong combined with incoming snow, be on the lookout for unfamiliar loading patterns of the new snow.

    The most likely areas to trigger an avalanche will be on shady aspects on the north half of the compass at mid and upper elevations where the new snow will be blown onto a weakened snow surface.   The new snow may also be challenged to bond to slick and firm surfaces that have been developing on solar aspects.    A big change to our snowpack demands a big step back in your terrain selection.  

    Shooting crack in a Wind Slab 

Avalanche Discussion

Sunny days, stable snow, and spring-like temperatures are coming to an end as we wrap up a dry Juneuary.   A welcome return to winter is on tap as the weather will become increasingly stormy as the day progresses.    Freezing levels will start out high (up to 5,000') as a warm front passes through the area mid-day,  but will start to decrease this evening into tomorrow morning.   The wind will be transporting snow from the South-Southwest and forming dense slabs in leeward terrain.  

The new snow will be falling on a variety of surfaces.  You can ensure a safe day in the mountains by avoiding slopes greater than 30 degrees as well as runouts of avalanche paths.  If you decide to enter avalanche terrain, keep a keen eye out for the following scenarios:

  • On shady and sheltered northerly aspects  that have been protected from the wind, the new snow will not bond well to the 10-12" of weak sugary facets and/or surface hoar.   In the Blues, there are several crust/facet combinations that exist in the upper 2 feet of the snowpack.  See photo below.  The new and wind blown snow may be able to hang in the balance for some time before a trigger is introduced to the equation.  Don't let the trigger be you! 
  • On solar aspects, the new and wind-blown snow will not bond well to firm surfaces that have gone through multiple melt-freeze cycles.   If you find areas where weak sugary snow exists below these crusts, a greater degree of caution should be used.  

As always, be on the lookout for the freebie signs of unstable snow: recent natural avalanches, shooting cracks, and whumphing of the snowpack.    However, we should be treating this setup similar to a persistent slab problem, where the usual signs may be hidden and remotely triggering avalanches will be a possibility.    This complex scenario demands a conservative approach to your terrain selection as we reach the upper end of snow totals by the end of the day.   The snowpack is waiting to reach a tipping point of stress over strength.  It will likely occur at some point this weekend.   This creates a challenge for backcountry travelers navigating avalanche terrain.  The best approach will be to utilize a conservative mindset as we see how this all unfolds.   Be patient.  

Keep in mind if you find yourself below the freezing line today and the precipitation is falling as rain,  look out for wet loose avalanches in terrain steeper than 35 degrees.  Avoid riding above terrain traps where even a small avalanche could have greater consequences. 

Observations:  Add value to your avalanche forecast.  Help us reduce uncertainty.  This weekend will be an ideal time to submit an observation if you get out in the backcountry.  

Eastern Oregon Backcountry Festival-Bid on the Online Auction Now!!!

Join us for the 13th Annual Eastern Oregon Backcountry Festival January 31-February 2nd. 

  • Jan. 31: Ski Film and Pie Auction @HQ in La Grande.  Doors open 6:00 PM Adults $10, Kids $5.  Come watch the new Matchstick Film Calm Beneath Castles and bid on pies and other desserts.  If you would like to bring a dessert for the auction please arrive at 6:00 PM.  
  • Feb. 1: Kip Rand Backcountry Race (Anthony Lakes) Race starts at 8 AM, show up at 7:45.  Companion Rescue Clinic 10 AM, Snow Pack Obs Clinic 1 PM.  Live music by Wanderlust 3:30 PM Main Lodge with raffle.  (You must show up 15 min early for clinics and race at EOBF tent on S. Side of Rental shop.)
  • Feb 2: Tour with WAC Staff:  Ski tour into Angell Basin to better understand how to safely travel in avalanche terrain.  Please consider purchasing raffle tickets, bidding on an auction item, or donating $50 to the Wallowa Avalanche Center if you are planning to attend this tour.

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