Avalanche forecast

Newberry

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

On Sunday in the Monument, avalanches will be likely as we see an influx of precipitation with freezing levels staying above the summit of Paulina Peak. These avalanches could occur on all aspects and elevations. They should mostly be small, but could be larger depending on the amount of water (i.e. rain) the snowpack receives. Look for signs of natural avalanche activity as a great indicator of instability, and if the snow surface gets saturated enough to sink above your ankles, stick to low angle terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Active rain on top of a soft snow surface should result in mental sirens going off and conservative terrain choices (i.e. slopes less than 30 degrees). As rain water is introduced into the upper snowpack, the surface snow will rapidly destabilize as it begins to lose it's cohesion. The weight of liquid water also creates a rapid loading effect, resulting in a greater likelihood of natural triggering. It is possible we will even see some combination of loose wet, wet slab, and cornice fall by the end of Sunday. If there is enough liquid water entering the snowpack, there is potential for the water to percolate down and "reactivate" any lingering weak layers, even if they have shown signs of recent relative strength. Be aware that wet avalanches can have a lot of weight, or force behind them, making it often difficult to pull yourself out if you get caugh in an active slide. Look for boot penetration above the ankles and roller balls as good indicators of an active wet loose avalanche problem. Ultimately, with how the weather is looking, it may be a good day to turn towards an alternative form of entertainment.

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