Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Three days of continuous rain up to about 2500' are creating unstable avalanche conditions. Natural avalanches are likely in steep terrain where wet snow and glide cracks are causing avalanches large enough to bury a person. At higher elevations where snow is falling, the combination of wind and new snow will make it easy to trigger an avalanche within the new snow. We recommend a cautious approach to avalanche terrain today, including avoiding runout zones from overhead avalanche paths. 

Portage/Placer: Coastal areas have received almost 6" of total precipitation over the past few days which is a big load on top of the existing snowpack. Natural avalanches are especially likely in these areas receiving the heaviest precipitation.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The rain over the past few days has saturated the upper snowpack which makes natural and human triggered wet loose avalanches likely. These avalanches start small but can entrain a lot of wet snow on the surface and build momentum on steep terrain. Wet loose avalanches are especially concerning near terrain traps like gullies or cliffs that drastically increase the consequences of being caught in an avalanche.  For those brave souls who venture into the mountains today, you can avoid this problem by sticking to lower angle terrain and being aware of runout zones from steep slopes above you.

    Storm slab and Wind slab: If you make it above 2500' today you may encounter dry snow. The winds and steady snowfall over the past three days will likely have formed wind slabs along ridgelines and convex rolls. You can use test slopes to determine how sensitive the new snow is to human triggering by looking for shooting cracks or small avalanches. In areas that received over 12" of new snow, it is possible the new snow could cause unstable avalanche conditions even in wind sheltered areas. 

     

    (12/4/2024)

    This might be a large wet loose or a small glide avalanche. Either way, the wet snow on steep rolls in the Tincan Trees was releasing naturally yesterday.

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    From the limited observations over the past few days, we have seen an uptick in glide avalanche releases (see ob for more details). These large and destructive avalanches release spontaneously and it is not uncommon for glide avalanches to occur even if there is no preexisting crack on the snow surface. The combination of warm temperatures and liquid water in the snowpack makes gilde avalanches more likely to release. We recommend extra caution today by giving areas with glide cracks a wide berth, especially in the runout zones below existing glide cracks. 

     

    (12/4/2024)

    Glide avlanche activity on Seattle Ridge.

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

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