Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A strong storm impacting the region will rapidly increase the avalanche danger throughout the day. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Lower elevation terrain that is typically safe could be hazardous today due to avalanches running into valley bottoms. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Happy Winter Solstice! Mother Nature is giving a good excuse to stay inside, with rain line expected to be around 2200'.

    A very strong storm system will impact the area today, with heavy precipitation and strong winds throughout the day. As an additional 1.5-3" of water (18-36" of snow above 3000') accumulate throughout the day avalanche danger will increase and natural avalanches will become very likely if the weather forecast is correct. We recommend avoiding avalanche terrain and staying clear of runout zones from overhead avalanche paths.

    Below are our best estimates for the amount of rain/snow that has already fallen from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning with estimated snowfall amounts above 2500':

    • Girdwood: 0.7" water (6-10" snow)
    • Portage: 2.2" water (24-30" snow)
    • Turnagain Pass: 0.5" water (4-6" snow)
    • Summit Lake: 0.2" water (1-3" snow)
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 0.0" water      

    Prior to the start of the snowfall on Thursday afternoon there was a widespread layer of surface hoar throughout Turnagain Pass. If the surface hoar was buried intact natural and human triggered avalanches will be more likely and could include low angle terrain that is typically safe. 

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The rain falling today could make glide avalanches more likely to release and create new glide cracks. Due to low visibility, these will be very difficult to see, so we recommend avoiding avalanche terrain and runout zones altogether.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The wet weather today will start to melt the frozen snowpack at lower elevations and make wet avalanches very likely on steep terrain. Wet loose avalanches start on the surface and can entrain a lot of snow as they run downslope. These are particularly dangerous near terrain traps like gullies and cliffs. 

    Wet slabs are also possible as the rain penetrates deeper into the snowpack and saturates existing weak layers in the snowpack. 

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