Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will start at LOW this morning, but as snowfall slowly accumulates throughout the day and westerly winds blow, the danger may rise to MODERATE at upper elevations on wind-drifted slopes.  If you encounter 6 inches or more of wind-blown snow, expect to possibly trigger small avalanches in the drifted snow.  Upper elevation slopes facing the east half of the compass are the most likely places to find fresh, thin slabs.  If you observe active wind loading below ridgelines or cross-loaded terrain features, then steer around them or choose wind-sheltered slopes to manage the problem.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    3-7 inches of snow may accumulate today, accompanied by moderate westerly winds with some strong gusts.  As snowfall accumulates and winds drift the new snow to leeward terrain features, you may be able to trigger small Wind Slab avalanches.  The old snow surfaces are a mix of faceted windboard, weak facets, and melt/freeze crusts.  Expect poor bonding between the new wind-drifted snow and the old surface.  Observing active wind loading, stiffer textures, or cracking in the new snow are signs of a developing problem.

    This is an example of a small Wind Slab avalanche from earlier this season. Similar avalanches could be triggered if snowfall and wind forecasts are verified today.

      Photo: Evan Ross

Avalanche Discussion

Sunday's storm system may produce up to 6 inches during the day, with another 6 inches possibly by Monday morning.  Forecasted wind speeds should be strong enough to drift the new snow to leeward terrain features.  Expect a slow rise in the avalanche danger as new snow accumulates and the wind blows.  The danger rating starts at LOW this morning and may reach MODERATE by sunset at upper elevations.  There is some uncertainty about the rise in danger as fresh snowfall is needed to fuel new slab formation on wind-drifted slopes.  If the snowfall fails to accumulate today, avalanche conditions may not change much.  Keep a close eye on changing conditions throughout the day and stay observant for blowing snow.  The expected avalanche size is small; however, a small avalanche in the shallow snowpack could be dangerous if you were to impact rocks.

A very potent and moisture-rich storm will impact the area from Tuesday through Thursday.  In preparation for this storm, forecasters have documented the current weak snow surfaces (1,2,3) over the past few days.  A weak, faceted snowpack is common on the north half of the compass, and it will not play nicely with a major storm.  With continuous snow coverage across most slopes (low-elevation sunny terrain is commonly patchy or bare dirt), we expect avalanche conditions to deteriorate rapidly once this storm system arrives in a few days.  Be prepared for dangerous avalanche conditions to develop later this week.

The CBAC is producing daily weather and avalanche forecasts for the season, so stay up-to-date on the changing conditions this week.

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