Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
No rating
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Highlights

The ongoing storm has created very dangerous avalanche conditions with heavy snowfall and strong winds. Very large natural and human-triggered avalanches are very likely on steep slopes and will be large enough to bury multiple people, snap trees, and destroy structures. All travel in avalanche terrain is not advised.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–3

    On steep west and south-facing slopes above 3000 feet in elevation, large and destructive avalanches are expected to release naturally today. The high winds overnight will continue through the day and will increase the size and sensitivity of wind slabs. Yesterday’s subfreezing temperatures refroze the snowpack’s surface resulting in a slick and icy surface found across terrain above 2000 feet. This icy surface will make an effective bed surface for avalanches that are likely to fail on this layer as snow will struggle to bond. 

    On steep easterly slopes, you will still likely find wind-affected snow that could avalanche. Avalanches in these aspects may not be as large or as destructive, but they still have the potential to bury a person.

    The best advice for today is simple, stay far away from large open steep slopes that are capable of producing avalanches. On westernly aspects avalanches will be larger and more destructive, adding in the confining nature of the terrain traps in that terrain only increases the consequences. Blowing snow is also likely to prevent you from using visual cues that would normally help keep you out of trouble in wind-loaded avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

More wind and less snow seems to be the trend in models this morning as this complex storm system continues. As of midnight, MWOBS recorded 3.4 inches of snow and by 6:00 AM Hermit Lake reported 7.5 inches of snow. With the most productive part of the storm to come during daylight hours today, the avalanche hazard will increase through the day as wind slabs will continue to build in size and sensitivity. While there is less snow, there is still a lot of snow available to develop large and destructive avalanches.

The high winds that have been recorded overnight may scour some of the terrain at upper elevations, which may limit the size of potential avalanches. While potentially smaller than the large avalanches expected in western aspects, these avalanches will still be dangerous and could bury a person. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the avalanche hazard will remain elevated as new snow is forecast overnight and while winds will begin to decrease, though they will remain strong. The wind slabs formed from today will still be sensitive as they are newly formed and will have the potential to be large and run far into their paths. 

Given these conditions, we strongly advise against venturing into avalanche terrain today. The combination of new snow and high winds will create a dangerous and dynamic avalanche environment. Blowing snow will limit your visibility and ability to assess terrain. Today is not the day to take risks with sensitive and large wind slabs developing as the consequences of being caught in an avalanche in this terrain may be unsurvivable.

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts. 

Help avalanche researchers! The Colorado Avalanche Information Center, the Avalanche Research Program at Simon Fraser University, and the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research are researching how skiers, snowmobilers, snowshoers, ice climbers, and anyone else who travels in the backcountry interpret avalanche forecast information. Completing this survey will take approximately 20 minutes. Thank you!

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