Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger will rise on steep solar aspects today. Wet loose avalanches are possible as well as deeper, wet slab avalanches given the sustained warm temperatures and solar gain that has saturated the snowpack. East, South East, South, South West and West aspects are going to be shedding snow starting in that order and in the form of rollerballs and point releases which are indicators that the snow is getting hot. Find cooler aspects that are not getting too hot to play on.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The snow is going to get more heat today from the Sun and the high temperatures that are forecasted today to creep up to 37 degrees at our Granite weather station, 7,600 feet! Size 2 wet loose avalanches, or small to medium-sized avalanches that are big enough to injure maybe even kill you are possible. Move to cooler aspects as the day heats up and you notice the signs like rollerballs or pinwheels, and you can avoid any wet loose avalanche problems that may literally snowball into bigger problems like wet slabs.

    (2/11/2022)

    Wet Loose R2.5 D2 Debris from rocky SE aspect of North Brun 7,800 FT

    Photo: GH

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    With the sustained heat from a light freeze last night, today we could see a natural release of small to medium wet slabs on solar aspects? The wet slab avalanches are hard to predict, but given the saturation, and weak layers that exist in our upper snowpack it is not impossible. These natural occurrences are as hard to predict as to when a cornice might get hot enough to weaken the bonds that hold it up also.

    Stay off steep slopes that are getting hot, especially in the late afternoon and evening today and you can avoid wet slab avalanches.

Avalanche Discussion

Today's advisory is sponsored by OnXBackcounrty Thank you for supporting the Payette Avalanche Center.

Today we are probably going to see a bit more avalanche activity given the duration of heat that our mountains are seeing. More sun and warm temps are forecasted, and a lack of a real freeze for more than 24 hours leads us to think about saturating our weak layers in the upper snowpack and failing naturally. Wet slab avalanches 1-2 feet deep are possible...loose avalanches may be more likely also, especially on steep aspects that are getting heated, and rocky. The wet loose avalanches that occur naturally, and the ones that riders and skiers can create have the potential to entrain enough snow, and trigger deeper, wet slab avalanches.

The Sun has done a good job of crusting up a lot of terrain, but we did not see as much debris in the Northern portion of our advisory area yesterday as we had thought we were going to see. The Eastern aspects started to pick up enough heat yesterday to saturate them down about 20 cm or 8 inches. All aspects were crusted, even on upper North aspects. South aspects had the thickest crust that was visible for miles.

Enjoy the beauty of blue skies and good stability but continue to watch your partners from a safe spot on steep slopes and for signs of unstable snow like rollerballs or point releases and find cooler aspects to play on until your snow dances start working...:)

*** Check out our Observations Page to see what others are seeing...We are always looking for more Information from snowmobilers and skiers on snow and weather conditions. These observations help our forecasts and they help other users in and outside of the community.

It can be quick with or without a photo…Use the Observations link at the top of the page to submit your observations. If you experience any unfortunate technical issues please email us at [email protected]…Thanks 

***Motorized users, please be aware that there are some areas of the Payette National Forest that are closed to motorized use, some of these closures are to protect wildlife and some are to protect other recreators.  Check out the Winter Travel Map below for details

https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd891395.pdf