Stormy weather, and rising temperatures could lead to avalanche activity tomorrow afternoon. Slopes that receive rain will produce Wet loose avalanches and possibly Wet Slabs. If you are out skiing in the rain, avoid steep unsupported slopes.
Shallow Wind Slab avalanches are possible on East slopes in the morning, but by afternoon will only remain at near summit elevations.
Wet Loose avalanches are likely on slopes that receive rain. Rain adds liquid water, and heat to the upper snowpack. When liquid water reaches a critical ratio in relation to ice, then the snow can no longer support itself on the hillside, and we see mushy tear-drop shaped avalanches. While inititally small, these avalanches can become sizeable especially when combined with Wet Slab or Wind Slab activity.
Wet Slab avalanches often occurr when we have rain and prolonged warming in combination with weaker layers or impenetrable layers like crusts in our snow pack. Some regions will be checking all of these boxes. Whether or not we see Wet Slab avalanches ultimately depends on how much rain we get. Steer clear of steep, unsupported slopes if you're out skiing in the rain.
On Saturday there were a few reports of size 1 Wind Slab avalanches from across our region. Wind Slabs will linger into tomorrow morning and will even build a bit with new snow in the morning. Ultimately, with snow levels rising to above 8000 ft. in the afternoon, those at treeline may transition to Wet Slabs. As a result Wind Slabs will only remain at near summit elevations on East slopes.
Monday will be a day of transition to warmer weather with a little moisture to kick things off. Avalanche activity depends on the intensity and duration of any rain, and the accompanying warm up. Showery weather may mean few resulting avalanches, whereas more significant rain followed by above freezing overnight temperatures on Monday night could lead to significant avalanche activity.
