Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A storm system will deliver around 6 inches by sunset in the Southeast Mountains.  The new snow will accumulate on a snowpack that largely remains wet from the recent warm weather.  A small triggered avalanche in the storm snow could gouge into the wet snowpack below creating larger than expected debris piles, particularly at low elevations.  High elevation northerlies have a dry snowpack and there is a chance you can trigger a large slab avalanche that breaks several feet deep.  Use caution where you find an unsupportive, wet snowpack below the storm snow, and on northerly-facing terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Consecutive days of intense meltwater production and several nights with poor refreezes are causing natural and triggered wet slab concerns.  Several large natural wet slabs released over the past few days, caused by meltwater weakening buried weak layers.     Today's storm system could exacerbate this problem as the wet weak layers need to carry the burden of a new snow load.  The most concerning terrain face northwest to north to northeast at lower elevations where last night delivered another poor refreeze.  The possibility exists for Wet Loose avalanches as well where you find a wet, cohesionless snowpack on sunny slopes at lower elevations.

    3/27:  This destructive wet avalanche on Gothic Peak started as a wet loose and then propagated as a narrow wet slab as it ran further downslope.  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    On the northerly aspects, there is a rare but dangerous chance you can trigger a hard slab avalanche that breaks up to several feet thick on weak faceted snow that was buried last month.  The new snow will add burden to buried weak layers and cause a slight uptick in the likelihood of you triggering a large slab avalanche. Slabs can be triggered remotely, from below or on adjacent slopes.  Given the thickness and hardness of slabs, you are unlikely to get direct feedback, such as collapsing or cracking, until it's too late.  In the Southeast Mountains, slopes holding a snowpack deeper than 1 meter and less than 2.5 meters are most suspect.   When in doubt, head for lower consequence terrain or slope angles in the lower 30-degree range and less. 

    This large persistent slab avalanche was remotely triggered on 3/18. 

Avalanche Discussion

There is a healthy amount of uncertainty about how the snowpack will behave with the incoming storm.  The most significant avalanche hazard will follow where the most snow accumulates in the Northwest Mountains AND at lower elevations in both forecast zones due to the poor refreeze.  The uncertainty comes from the combination of a snowpack still draining meltwater from the recent warm weather and a substantial new snow load.  Take a cautious approach where you find more than about 8 inches of new snow, slopes included in the Wet Slab/Persistent Slab distribution roses as this is where you could trigger a dangerous slab avalanche, and on low elevation terrain where the snowpack remains unsupportive and wet.

Below treeline terrain had a very poor refreeze last night which has created wet and mushy conditions for today.  Last night was the warmest low temperatures below treeline in the past week.  The threat of Wet Loose and Wet Slab avalanches is greatest at lower elevations.  A small triggered avalanche on steep terrain could release a Wet Slab on shady terrain, or simply gouge into the snowpack and create large avalanches.  If you find an unsupportive snowpack below the storm snow, your safest option will be to choose lower angled terrain.

Areas in the Northwest Mountains could accumulate a foot of new snow today.  This will create storm snow problems for you to manage where you find it resting on a supportive snowpack.  The new snow started to accumulate during relatively mild temperatures which often promotes good bonding and winds are forecasted to remain light today which reduces the chances of encountering a wind drifted slab.  Use a conservative mindset at upper elevations to ensure that the snowpack below the storm snow is well frozen and that there is a good bond between the new and old snow.

Today is a good time to dial back terrain choices and slope angles to account for the dramatic changes to the snowpack.

Regions covered