Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A few inches of new snow and wind may have created chances to trigger small, soft wind slabs on high, exposed slopes. Heed signs of instability such as shooting cracks or whumphing collapses if you find them. Look out for shallowly buried obstacles as you travel and be advised that a winter storm will quickly increase avalanche danger Saturday evening into Sunday.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The snowpack is thin, but you might find small wind slabs in higher, exposed locations from the light snow that fell on Friday. Increasing winds and incoming snowfall later in the day Saturday may also quickly form windslabs that could be triggered by people. For the most part, we're talking about a shallow instability that you can easily look for as you gain elevation. Check for visual signs of drifts, wind etched snow, and look for signs of instability such as shooting cracks or collapses.  You are likely to be able to travel safely in many areas without encountering this problem, but alpine terrain and slopes near ridgelines are the ones to look out for.

    Shaded, sheltered terrain such as north facing bowls, and steep, rocky pitches may still hold weak faceted snow from the long, dry spell in mid-November. Be leery of these areas, especially if you hear whumphing collapses or punch through the surface into sugary snow. It's easy to check for this layer with a quick hand pit. If you find sugary, weak snow and a slab on top, then avoid slopes steep enough to avalanche nearby.

    (11/23/2022)

    Small wind slab near a ridge line at Stevens Pass. East aspect at 5000ft.

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

It's early season, and the snowpack is shallow. Expect to find around 2-2.5ft of snow in the deeper locations. Lots of early season hazards exist such as shallowly buried trees, rocks, and other obstacles. In terms of our snowpack, we're still gathering info about what's out there on the ground, so this forecast comes with a fair amount of uncertainty with limited information as a starting point.

As a brief season history up to now- It's worth highlighting the long, dry spell that took place during the middle of November. Shallow snow sat on the ground and became weak and faceted with time in the shade. Strong winds and days of sunshine created firm surfaces in many places in the alpine, and slopes exposed to direct sun. Weak, faceted snow likely still exists out there and one may find preserved weak snow, especially in the shaded, sheltered slopes. Observers reported quite a bit of whumphing on the 23rd north of Lichtenberg and more isolated near Stevens Pass ski area. Recent small and large slab avalanches were documented from NW-NE facing slopes at around 5,000ft off Lichtenberg that day. On the 25th, precipitation began as light rain on the pass, but turned to snow quickly. The jury is still out on whether or not this layer will continue to be a problem. 

On Saturday evening, an incoming winter storm will quickly change what the mountains look like and quickly increase avalanche danger. Make sure you are prepared for this storm to come in, keeping in mind your exit plan and timing. If you get out into the mountains on Saturday, please submit an observation!

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