Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Our dangerous snowpack wants to spoil your beautiful weekend.  Dozens of deadly avalanches have run in the past few days, as recently as yesterday afternoon on the southeast face of Ruby Peak.  Conditions are primed for human triggers in the wake of our prolonged stormy period.  You can find safe riding on slope angles less than 30 degrees that aren't connected to steeper overhead slopes.  Traveling on slopes that were bare in late November (See this ob and this ob) is another easy way to avoid persistent slabs.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

     Continuous snowfall and blowing snow over the past week have built large persistent slabs sensitive to human triggers.  There's a widespread weak layer of facets and faceted crusts buried by 2 to 3-foot slabs on west to north to southeast aspects. Concerns also exist on some alpine south and southwest-facing terrain features.  Slabs are largest in leeward terrain at higher elevations.  Choose routes that keep you off and out from under steep terrain that holds old, weak snow near the ground.    Collapses and shooting cracks are clear signs of danger warning you to stay on slope angles that are consistently less than 30 degrees.  

    Recent natural avalanches in the Southeast Mountains zone (Timbered Ridge).  This is a good representation of the size and propagation potential of triggered avalanches.

Avalanche Discussion

This is one of those weekends that causes a lot of anxiety for our forecast team.  That's why we're editing videos about helicopters and scrambling to get dozens of recent avalanche observations in on a Friday night.  All of the ingredients are in place for an accident:  Blue skies and fresh powder.  Higher riding quality on the most dangerous slopes.  Slabs that are dangerously large and can be remotely triggered from a long distance away.  And avalanche warnings that have expired now that we are out of the peak of natural activity.   Look no further than our media gallery below or our observations page to get a better understanding of what our snowpack is capable of doing today.  You can explore the patterns of the hundreds of natural avalanches that have run in the past two weeks here.   Our persistent slab distribution rose above covers the terrain where 99% of all persistent slabs have occurred this month.  The outliers are the high elevation south-to-southwest-facing slopes that held thick crusts capping facets at the start of the cycle.  

Where can we go to avoid a deadly persistent slab? Not all slopes are dangerous today.  As always, you have low-angle terrain that is consistently less than 30 degrees as your trump card.  Furthermore, slopes that were bare in late November are lacking the weak layer of concern.  That's generally on lower elevation, southerly slopes, well documented in these observations (Northwest Mountains and Southeast Mountains).   Slopes that flushed earlier in the cycle are also less prone to sliding again.  However, in some cases, the weak layer was stacked thick enough that repeat offenders on paths that ran early in the month could be an issue that you need to assess for.    Today, the bullseye for triggering a large persistent slab is on any slope steeper than 35 degrees with enough coverage to ride, that faces west to north to east to southeast, that has not avalanched yet.  Those are on my "No way, not today" list.  

Regions covered