San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Avalanches are unlikely today. Expect hard, refrozen snow and wind-toughened snow on most aspects above and near treeline. Sunny lower-elevation aspects may soften in the afternoon sunshine. Crampons, an ice axe, or a whippet ski pole will be helpful on steep slopes. 

A substantial warming trend is expected by mid-week, likely creating wet-snow instabilities. 

7:30 AM Update: Some unexpected snow flurries have begun this morning above 9,000'. Any accumulating snow will increase the avalanche hazard and possibly create small storm/wind slabs on the upper mountain. You must pay attention to changing conditions if heading into the backcountry. Dynamic spring weather is here! 

Last night, most areas above ~8,000' dipped below freezing, and surfaces across the mountain will be frozen this morning. Winds, a solid refreeze, and lower temperatures will limit the backcountry corn snow harvesting today. But sunny wind-protected slopes near 10,500' and below may provide soft corn snow. If there are any warming-snow instabilities today, they will be below treeline in isolated pockets, like small canyons with warming cliffs near steep sunny slopes.

Substantially increasing temperatures by mid-week will likely create warm snow instabilities on all aspects and elevations. Watch for above-freezing overnight temperatures, which could lead to larger wet avalanches. Rollerballs and deep slushy snow (over your boot top) will indicate it is time to move off steep, warm slopes. Spring is all about timing and adjusting your travel for dynamic weather. Read more about common backcountry spring conditions scenarios and how to adjust your travel appropriately. Various weather links to help with your planning are always at the top of this website in the weather menu. 

On Saturday, April 13, lower-velocity winds and warm weather softened the snow on most aspects and up to 11,300' on luminous northerly slopes. Above treeline conditions in Abineau Canyon were generally firm with wind-packed, wind-eroded, and wind-sculpted snow surfaces. In the distance, some sastrugi was observed on northerly slopes, but its hardness (or softness) was unknown. There were a few small and unreactive wind boards. KPAC observed very little powder snow available for transport and no blowing snow. There was no evidence of recent loose wet releases above and near treeline in Abineau Canyon. Below treeline, old wet-snow rollerballs were noted on E-NE slopes from the big warmup last Wednesday/Thursday. 

The snowpack has just about melted below 9,000' on northerly slopes. On April 13, the snowpack felt vernal and isothermic up to nearly 10,300' in northerly terrain. Above that, it had more of a colder, mid-March feel. The mid to upper mountain is holding snow very well for mid-April. Snow depths on south-facing slopes are averaging between 110 and 130cm. On ridgelines and south and west-facing slopes, exposed rocks act as thermal sources, and melting spreads around these features. Efficient travel will not last much longer with these trends. Soon, be prepared to skin over rock and gravel or transition in and out of your equipment. Numerous lines remain from the Humphrey's Trail saddle into the ski area. This is a rarity for this time of year and makes for convenient skiing conditions. 

If you are headed out early, ski and splitboard crampons are recommended. An ice axe or a whippet ski pole can be useful. Slopes are hard and icy until they begin to melt, and any slip could result in an out-of-control slip-n-slide. Although most of the mountain has entered a melt-freeze cycle, continue to practice appropriate backcountry travel. Ski one at a time, avoid stopping in run-out zones, and keep eyes on one another. Don't let the springtime conditions lull you into a state of complacency.

Expect the last round of 2023-2024 forecasts next Friday through Monday, April 19-22. 

This is my last planned forecast of the season. Thank you to everyone who submitted observations this year. Any mountain information is helpful!  Thank you, Mathieu, Paul, Tanner, David, and Eric, for your forecasts, observations, guidance, and friendship. Thank you, Derik, Blair, and Arizona Snowbowl Ski Patrol friends, for keeping operations tight on the wild west side of the San Francisco Peaks. Thank you, BJ, for the Agassiz off-piste reports. Thank you, KPAC board, for making it all come together. Thank GODness no one was caught in an avalanche this season.  Thank you for appreciating the mountains' risks, uncertainty, beauty, and magic. Best, Troy Marino