Avalanche forecast

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Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Triggering a large avalanche that breaks widely on buried weak layers is your primary concern today. The likelihood of this is gradually decreasing, but it remains a worrisome possibility. Don't expect obvious signs of instability before triggering an unsurvivable slide. Wet loose avalanches may continue to release naturally during the heat of the day as the bright March sun melts the icy crust at the snow surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Triggering a large, 2-5 foot thick slab avalanche that breaks widely remains a worrisome possibility on many slopes. Avalanche activity during major storms of the past two weeks was widespread, occurring on all aspects. Many slides in this zone failed on persistent weak layers in the upper and middle portion of the snowpack. You'll find a variety of weak layers here (crusts with facets on solar slopes, and facets without crusts on shaded slopes). 

    Do not expect feedback to receive obvious feedback from the snowpack today. The first sign of instability will be the large, wide avalanche that you trigger. These slides can be triggered after dozens of skiers or riders have traversed a slope. Triggered slides are likely to break far above you, making escape difficult to impossible. 

    These weak layers have gained some strength and the likelihood of triggering a slide on them is gradually decreasing, but the consequences would be severe. Triggering a slide is most likely in steep, rocky, open, heavily wind-affected terrain.

    (3/3/2024)

    The crown of this large avalanche near Valley Ck Lake north of Stanley is an estimated 3-5 feet tall. It probably involved persistent weak layers and failed on a NW-W aspect near 8900'. 

    Photo: Sena Strenge

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Stiff, icy crusts at the snow surface will quickly melt in the powerful March sun, bringing on the threat of wet snow avalanches. These slides start at a point and fan out as they travel downslope and gather speed and debris. I heard and watched a number of these releasing naturally in the steep, rocky terrain of the Sawtooths yesterday. In this type of terrain, these slides can become large enough to bury you. Today's southerly winds may help to cool the snow surface, muting the impacts of this problem.

    If the snow you are moving through is melting and becoming wet, these slides are on the menu. Pay close attention to the terrain above you and the consequences of being knocked off your feet and sent downhill by one of these slides.

    (3/8/2024)

    This series of wet loose avalanches was observed above the Fishhook drainage of the Sawtooths. These slides started around 9,000' on slopes that face SE-S-SW

    Photo: Ben VandenBos

Avalanche Discussion

SLEEPING ELEPHANTS

The Avalanche Danger has dropped to MODERATE today. This drop in danger is not an indication that avalanche conditions are now safe. The drop in danger is taking place because the likelihood of triggering a slide is gradually decreasing. Decreasing, but not going away. 

Storms over the past two weeks produced widespread avalanche activity. Avalanches were failing continuously in the new snow, but the massive avalanches that failed on persistent weak layers are the type we are most concerned about now. Days without snow have given the snowpack a chance to catch its breath and the bond at these weak interfaces is slowly gaining strength.

Imagine trying to wake up a sleeping elephant with a feather. The thick, leathery skin of the elephant makes it tough to get the message across, but if you find a thin spot in the beast's armor you will find yourself in quite a bad spot. Our snowpack is similar. You'll move around on the surface, enjoying the soft snow and dodging the crusts. There won't be many or any indications that there is weak, unstable snow underneath the thick slabs at the surface. And, more likely than not, you won't trigger a massive avalanche. However, if you do, there is a good chance that you won't be around to tell the tale.

Enjoy the sun and the snow-covered mountains, but think about the sleeping elephants when you're out there. You can significantly decrease the likelihood of triggering an avalanche by steering clear of steep, rocky, open, heavily wind-affected terrain.

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