Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Sustained warm temperatures and direct sun combined with the absence of a freeze overnight will make wet avalanches likely today.   Weak layers in the upper 3 feet of the snowpack will become stressed by the warming temperatures and sun.  It will be possible to trigger a larger, more destructive avalanche failing on these persistent weak layers.  Avoid traveling in steep terrain or above terrain traps mid-day through this evening.  

It is with profound sadness that we report an avalanche fatality that occurred on 3/6 in the Northern Elkhorns. Our backcountry community is small and we understand the tremendous grief many are experiencing. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all affected. An accident report will be forthcoming. A preliminary report can be found below in the forecast discussion.

This forecast is sponsored by  QuickHatch Provisions

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    It will be likely to trigger wet loose avalanches today on aspects that are seeing direct sunlight and with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 50's.    The lack of a good freeze last night at lower and mid elevations will amplify this problem sooner than what you might be used to.  When you step off your machine or are on your skis and you sink into wet snow up to the top of your boot, it's time to scoot!   The classic precursor signs of wet loose avalanches are roller balls and pinwheels entraining surface snow as it is warmed by the sun and warm temperatures, or as you ski or ride over steep terrain.  Wet Loose avalanches will become large today and entrain more snow than you might expect.  These avalanches could easily knock you off your feet, and push you over unforgiving terrain or stack debris into terrain traps such as gullies/creek drainages.   Avoid slopes greater than 35 degrees in steepness during the heat of the day.  

    It will be possible for a wet loose avalanche to add enough weight to the upper snowpack to trigger a larger and potentially unsurvivable avalanche that could step down to persistent weak layers in the upper half of the snowpack.  

    (3/15/2024)

    D1 Wet Loose Avalanche on a SE aspect at 8400' in the Western Wallowas.  

    Photo: Victor McNeil

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As the upper snowpack is being affected by warming temperatures and sun, a deeper and more destructive avalanche can fail on buried persistent weak layers in the upper half of the snowpack.  

    On Wednesday, forecaster Michael Hatch traveled to Spout Springs and found a thin layer of buried surface hoar down 8" at the new/old snow interface on a north-facing slope near 5200' in elevation. Surface hoar is notorious for being a persistent and reactive weak layer when buried.  If you collapse this weak layer in a shallower area on the slope (say around rocky terrain or wind-scoured areas) or roll over a steep convexity, the propagating fracture could trigger a large and destructive avalanche.  Avoid potential trigger points and steep (>35 degrees) convex rollovers, especially near treeline and mid-slope. Surface hoar forms in more open and protected terrain with little sun, so you'll find in mostly on shady slopes NW-N-NE. There is a lot of spatial variability of this layer across the slope. It is hard to see in the snowpack as it is a very thin layer. When in doubt, do snowpack tests, and better yet, choose lower-angle terrain to recreate in. You can always choose to avoid avalanche terrain altogether, and at the very least, ride on aspects where this problem is less likely to exist. 

     

     

    (3/13/2024)

    This is the type of terrain where you could trigger the buried persistent weak layer in the Blues. It is a north-facing slope where the wind has been depositing snow and it also happens to be a convex rollover where the slope steepens considerably and is under added stress. 

    Photo: Wallowa Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

No danger rating has been issued for the lowest elevation band in the Blues (3000'-4000') due to the lack of snow in that zone. If we receive significant low elevation snow we will begin forecasting for that zone again.

Warming Temperatures = Increasing Instability

The continued warm temperatures are creating a big change to our snowpack this weekend.  The snowpack does not like big changes and is currently being stressed.  Water percolating through the upper snowpack will create unstable avalanche conditions. 

Through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, we can expect to see poor overnight freezing temperatures and daytime temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 50's.   Solar aspects (SE-S-SW) at most elevations in the Blues will be taking the bulk of the heat which will cause the snow to melt, and that melting will penetrate the snowpack and create instability.  Last night's temperatures did not get below 40 degrees at weather stations in the Blues.  The lack of a good freeze overnight means wet avalanches are likely earlier in the day.  If recreating in the mountains today, create a well-thought-out travel plan that gives you wide terrain margins and keeps you off and out from underneath steep slopes from mid-day through the evening hours.  

As you push onto shadier aspects in search of the increasingly elusive cold snow, be mindful of areas that may harbor persistent weak layers such as the Buried Surface Hoar that has been found 8-12" below the surface.  Evaluate the snow under your feet before committing to slopes greater than 30 degrees.  If you have uncertainty in the snowpack, terrain is the answer.  Seek out terrain less than 30 degrees. 

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Avalanche Fatality on Gunsight Mountain in the Elkhorn Mountains on 3/6/24

At approximately 4:30 pm on Wednesday, March 6th, an avalanche accident occurred on the north side of Gunsight Mountain (8342′) in the Elkhorn Mountains near Anthony Lakes.  

We are deeply saddened to announce that Nick Burks passed away due to trauma after triggering an avalanche while backcountry skiing with a friend.  Nick was a highly respected snow safety professional and worked for the Wallowa Avalanche Center as an educator and forecaster.  A full investigation and report will be forthcoming in the coming days.  Our backcountry community is small and we understand the tremendous grief many are experiencing. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all affected.

 

 

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