Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We have another beautiful day in paradise coming up. You can still find cold snow and good skiing on due north-facing slopes, mostly above 11,000ft. In these areas, be mindful of the low likelihood to encounter a lingering persistent slab avalanche, primarily on very steep and rocky slopes. On other aspects, you can find some nice spring skiing at lower elevations once the snow surface warms up. Again, climbing above 11,000ft the snow surface is a bit more variable on those other aspects as it continues to slowly transition from last week's powder to this week's developing spring conditions. The potential to trigger small loose wet avalanches will develop later today in areas where you find a few inches of wet snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    High-consequence persistent slab avalanches have become isolated and difficult to trigger.  The most problematic terrain is on high elevation, northerly aspects in areas with relatively shallow snowpacks (<175 cm).  Old facet layers are weaker and easier to impact in steep rocky slopes with variable snow depths.   This video sums up an example of this type of terrain.  You can reliably avoid the problem on the southern half of the compass, where the snowpack has transitioned to more of a springlike structure.  

    Persistent slab avalanche crowns spanning steep, rocky terrain. This avalanche ran sometime during the late March storm cycle and wind-loading event.  

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Watch for shallow sluffs in the upper snowpack as it gets wet from solar radiation and warming temperatures.  Instabilities will be small and easy to recognize: look for rollerballs, pinwheels, or sluffing from very steep slopes.  Use sluff management techniques or move to lower slope angles to manage the problem if it develops. This avalanche problem may be the most common this afternoon between about 11,000ft and 12,000ft. At lower elevations there is much less snow avalible for wet avalanches, then climbing well above 12,000ft you will begin moving into colder snow. Even though these avalanches are small, they could push you off of a cliff or into more hazardous terrain. You can avoid the issue by moving to colder aspects where the snow surface is still frozen.  

    This is one of the larger wet loose avalanches observed this week. Notice how the wet snow is sliding on a hard crust buried a few inches deep, and how they can accumulate mass in bigger terrain. 

Avalanche Discussion

High temperatures throughout this week have slowly been increasing each day. Today, we are looking at high temperatures making the most notable jump, by about 10 degrees at 11,000ft, and climbing into the low 40's. Wet avalanche activity has been small this week because they are only entraining the top 1 to 4" of snow, and they are not gouging into the firm crusts below. After a brief break in wet avalanche activity yesterday, the potential to trigger wet avalanches will return today as snow surfaces again warm from the sun and rising temperatures. 

Today, we are riding the fence between level 1 and level 2 avalanche danger ratings. Wet avalanches are the main consideration. They are small since there is little snow avalible for entrainment, and compared to other avalanche problems they are relatively easy to manage. However, by the afternoon in areas with a few inches of wet snow, wet loose avalanches will become possible to trigger in steep terrain and you'll have a more enjoyable day moving onto colder slopes. This is a typical springtime setup, with the best riding conditions occurring during the first half of the day, then in some areas conditions will deteriorate in the afternoon. High temperatures soar even higher on Friday, and we will begin to look at the potential for wet avalanches to gouge deeper into the snowpack while increasing in size. Higher elevations above 12,000ft that still hold cold snow, may also more commonly produce wet avalanches that will run longer distances and entrain more snow. With the distribution expanding and size increasing the avalanche danger will more notably increase in the afternoon on Friday and potentially into the weekend. 

Last week we were also dealing with wind slab avalanche activity. Those old wind slabs have settled out, and our attention has turned to the lingering persistent slab avalanche problem. This observation from Purple Ridge on Monday highlights how wind slabs that formed on northerly aspects may persist longer on a few features, and at this point, those concerns would be characterized as a persistent slab. This observation from Daisy Pass on Wednesday didn't encounter a persistent slab issue in the upper snowpack, while this observation from near 13,000ft and just outside our forecast area did find the sweet spot for triggering a slab avalanche. In our forecast area, the last persistent slab avalanche was triggered on April 3rd. The most likely terrain to encounter a lingering persistent slab is where the snowpack has remained unusually shallow and weak all winter. On northerly aspects, seek out slopes with deep and uniform snow depths to reduce your risk of a low-likelihood, high-consequence avalanche.  

Regions covered