Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2012–Feb 27th, 2012

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure should have moved into the region by Monday morning causing mostly clear skies and cooler overnight temperatures. Strong solar radiation may bring warm temperatures at or above freezing on southerly aspects. Some valley cloud is forecast for the Columbia and Kootenay valleys. Temperatures are expected to drop down to near -14.0 in the alpine Monday night during clear skies and light northerly winds. High pressure should continue for Tuesday, and warm temperatures are expected on sunny alpine slopes. Shaded aspects are expected to remain cool and dry. Some cloud should move into the region by Tuesday evening. Forecast snowfall amounts are unsure for Wednesday at this time.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control in the region on Saturday produced avalanches up size 2.5 in the 30 cm of storm snow. Some skier remote triggered avalanches failing on the persistent weak layer continue to be reported from the region. The 50 cm of storm snow as of Sunday may develop a soft surface slab that does not cause the PWL to fail , but may be large enough on their own to injure or bury a person. Avalanches that release on the PWL that is buried down about 100 cm have the potential to be very destructive.

Snowpack Summary

Another 20 cm of dry light new snow on Saturday night and Sunday morning has combined with 30 cm from Saturday morning to add to the load above the highly reactive persistent weak layer (PWL), comprising large surface hoar in sheltered areas and a sun crust on solar aspects. This PWL is now buried by about 100 cm and resulting avalanches could easily be large enough to bury, injure or kill a person. Professionals throughout the region are treating this layer with extreme caution, since it is showing signs of remote triggering and the ability to propagate in low angled terrain. Strong winds earlier in the week have created stiff windslabs that have been cracking and propagating long fractures. The new snow may make it difficult to identify these windslabs especially in openings at treeline and below. In the alpine there may be enough wind to create new windslabs that are softer and probably will not bond well to the old surface.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.