Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

On Wednesday, the potential for wet avalanches will remain as precipitation starts to taper off from a significant atmospheric river event. Be leery of steeper slopes and large avalanche paths where avalanches can gather enough mass to bury and kill you. Consider traveling more cautiously than you might during other periods of Moderate danger.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Continue to be leery of the recently soaked snowpack on steeper slopes over 35 degrees. These are the areas where wet avalanches could still run and get you into trouble on Wednesday. Although we expect that the likelihood of you triggering an avalanche has decreased, that doesn’t mean that it is eliminated. With so much heavy wet snow, if an avalanche does start, it will likely result in it growing large enough to bury and kill you. These avalanches often start at a point before entraining significant snow and fanning out as they travel downhill and can often be preceded by rollerballs and pinwheels.

    In some areas, there is still the chance that lingering Wet Slab or Glide avalanches could fail given the right conditions. Slabs could even be triggered by a descending loose avalanche. You may want to consider limiting the time you spend in large avalanche paths to help mitigate the possibility of being caught by one of these.

    (3/1/2022) Looking up the derbis as some of the higher crowns on a large natural wet slab that failed on the N face of Pickhandle Pt. Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

It has been a soggy couple of days in the West South. The numbers are in, and NWAC stations at Crystal and Paradise both recorded over 7” of precipitation since Saturday night! With unseasonably high freezing levels, most of that precipitation came as rain and thoroughly soaked our once dry wintertime snowpack. NWAC forecasters in the Crystal Mountain area on Tuesday reported plenty of recent avalanches up to a foot deep (~D2) on all aspects and to no one’s surprise, that the snowpack was heavy and rain-soaked. Some of these slides were confirmed to have failed on the weak layers of concern we had going into this atmospheric river event. White Pass Pro Patrol also reported multiple wet avalanches near their resort on Monday and scientists from Mount St. Helens reported picking up multiple avalanches up to size D2 on their seismic equipment during the cycle. Although observations from upper elevations and other areas of the zone continue to be limited, this is enough information for us to feel confident that a widespread cycle occurred throughout the zone. 

As noted above, we suspect that the likelihood for you to trigger an avalanche will decrease on Wednesday. As temperatures start to cool and snow flurries return to the area, the snowpack should slowly start to stabilize from the top down. We do not expect enough new snow to drive any type of avalanche hazard at upper elevations. That said, plenty of uncertainty exists about what’s happening up there, and conditions around the zone are still in a state of flux as our snowpack adjusts to the recent rain. On the volcanoes, there could be a chance that multiple feet of snow exist above ~7000 feet, meaning that conditions are drastically different. Regardless of your location or elevation, you may want to consider shaping your travel plans as if you were traveling at Considerable danger. You also need to realize that the landscape has changed drastically since you last were in the mountains. Creeks and streams are swollen with water and could be impassible. In some low elevation areas, there could be bare ground showing where snow existed just a few days ago. If temperatures cool enough, surfaces should freeze and make for dangerous slippery conditions. 

We still don’t know the full extent of what happened during this atmospheric river event, but would love to hear from you if you spot recent avalanches during your travels. You can help us track this cycle by submitting a public observation.

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