Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist near and above treeline as you can trigger a very large persistent slab avalanche on faceted weak layers that are buried 3 to 5 feet down beneath cohesive slabs. Recent winds have transported snow into stiffening wind slabs at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features.  Warm temperatures and sunny skies will bring the threat of loose wet snow avalanches on solar aspects during the day.   Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees giving steep northerly and east aspects at upper elevations wide buffers.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Persistent weak layers are now buried under 3 to 5-foot slabs and will continue to struggle to adjust to this latest round of loading. These avalanches will be large and destructive propagating widely across slopes and able to run long distances well into the flats and could be unsurvivable. The bulls-eye continues to remain northerly and east aspects near and above treeline.   Shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may or may not be present and give you a false sense of security.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins on the slab and near rock outcrops where you're more likely to impact these buried weak layers.  You can trigger these avalanches from a distance away or from well below. 

    Very Large natural persistent slab avalanche on a NE aspect that ran sometime overnight/ early morning on Saturday.  About 500' wide, avg depth 3 - 5' running well into the flats. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It's that time of year with a high sun angle and warm temperatures during the day that loose wet snow avalanches will continue to be a concern.  These types of avalanches typically start as a point release around rock bands and can entrain more snow as it travels the slope.  Loose snow avalanches are typically small, but with a lot of recent snow that can be entrained as it moves down the slope, these avalanches could grow in size to be able to bury you.  This is especially true if it piles up in a terrain trap.  Natural loose snow avalanches are likely today as the day warms up and on steep slopes that are directly in the sun.  Rollerballs, pinwheels and wet gloppy snow are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet and it's time to head to a shadier aspect.

    Loose snow avalanches on southerly facing terrain on Friday that started around rock bands and fanning out as they traveled down the slope.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong winds on Friday were easily transporting recent snow at the upper elevations into stiffening wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain.  Yesterday these slabs were 15 to 30 cm thick but pocketed on the leeward sides of ridgelines. West winds will be increasing today and may help stiffen the surface. Watch for obvious wind drifted pillows, sastrugi like snow and stiffening of the snow. Shooting cracks off your boards are indications that you've found unstable snow.  If traveling on ridgelines pay attention to cornices that may break back further than expected.  A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.

Avalanche Discussion

A warming trend will continue today with temperatures climbing into the 30's and 40's under sunny skies.  West winds will be increasing throughout the day ahead of a weak storm system that pushes in tonight into Monday.  Little snowfall is expected with maybe an inch or two of snow. Increasing winds today, should help limit some of the warming and intense sun we have right now, helping keep the snow surface cooler at upper elevations. Over the last couple of days, the recent snow has been settling with crusts forming on the surface at lower elevations and solar aspects.  

From 3/4 to 3/10 a series of storms brought close to 5 feet of snow and about 4" of SWE to the mountains here in northern NM.  On Thursday 3/10 we picked up 16 to 20 inches of snow with moderate to strong winds where we had a natural avalanche cycle on many slopes.  Just prior to the big storm on Thursday, there was a very large persistent slab avalanche on the north-facing slopes of Vallecito.   We've now had very large natural persistent slab avalanches over the last 4 days and this problem is going to be with us for a while longer.  Although it might not be hare trigger and could take several people skiing or riding the slope or may not avalanche at all, the consequences will be incredibly high if the slope does avalanche.   

A very large natural avalanche from Friday night/ Early Saturday morning is a big reminder that faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack are still reactive and slopes that didn't avalanche during the storm on Thursday and are right on that tipping point. Prior to this avalanche moderate to strong winds on Friday were loading this slope throughout the day. This avalanche was about 500' wide with an average crown of 3 to 5 feet and most likely would not have been survivable running well into the flats. It looks like it was triggered either from a cornice dropping from the ridge above or loose snow sluffing. The threat of these very large avalanches will keep the avalanche danger at Considerable near and above treeline.   

Well preserved weak layers continue to remain deeper down in the snowpack buried beneath 3 to 5-foot slabs that have built up over the last week's storms. These faceted weak layers formed over high-pressure periods in January and February and are typically sandwiched between crusts or old decomposing slabs.  These faceted layers are found beneath an obvious dust layer that formed on 2/22 from a strong wind event. On many slopes, this dust layer was the old existing surface prior to the 5 feet of snow that has fallen over the last week.  These weak layers are widespread and can be found at all elevations with northerly through east aspects near and above treeline being the bulls-eye as these are slopes where we've seen the most amount of loading and natural avalanche activity over the last 4 days.  Prior to this storm, we had very warm temperatures and sunny days that created melt-freeze crusts of varying thickness and strengths on lower elevation terrain and solar aspects.  Thicker stronger crusts will be better equipped to handle more weight, but may just need you to find a sweet spot where the crust is less supportable. 

Regardless of whether it's a persistent slab, wind slab, or loose wet snow avalanche, dangerous and complex avalanche conditions exist in the mountains today. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and a conservative mindset are essential.   You can enjoy safe powder skiing by sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain.

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