Northern New Mexico

You can potentially trigger a large persistent slab avalanche on slopes that face northwest through east near and above treeline.  Stiff slabs rest on top of a weak layer that 2 to 3 feet down and is still showing signs of being reactive in stability tests.  Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audbile collapses most likely will not be present.  Avoid likely trigger points near rock outcrops or on the margins of the slab where you're more likely to impact this weak layer.  

Wet avalanches remain a concern today on lower elevation terrain where the snowpack has become saturated from the recent warm temperatures, sunny skies and mild refreezes overnight.  Avoid steep slopes where you find wet unsupportable snow or collapses with shooting cracks.  

A more active weather pattern will return to northern NM as a series of disturbances will impact our mountains through Tuesday.  The best shot at snow will be Saturday evening into Sunday, with none of these systems bringing a sunstantial amount of snow with any given system. Instead we'll see incrementally loading slopes periods of snow and increasing winds in the days to come.

Over the last 5 days, its felt fully like spring with temperatures climbing above freezing at all elevations and into the 50's at lower elevations.  This combined with the high sun angle, long sunny days and light winds has seen the snowpack settle, melt away and form varying thicknesses of melt-freeze crusts on the surface.   On many south, west and east slopes the snowpack has melted down to the distinct dust layer from the strong winds we had on 2/22.  It's getting harder and harder but there is still "recycled" powder that can found on north aspects that are wind-sheltered. At upper elevations on north and east aspects you'll find thicker wind slabs on the surface.  Conditions are variable, but hopefully will change with snow in the forecast over the next several days as we return back to winter.

The persistent slab problem continues to linger but is becoming more stubborn with each passing day since the last loading event a week ago.  Near treeline is where I've been finding the most reactive widespread weak layer and slab combinations. Above treeline, the faceted weak layer was less continuous and buried beneath wind slabs that formed prior to  last weeks storm.  At these elevations we are finding a wind slab on the surface from last weeks strong winds that hasn't been reactive in tests and travels. If you're traveling in this terrain think about consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche.   Stability tests continue to get moderate to hard results on these weak layers.  In travels we have not been observing obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks or loud whumpfs which lead to a false sense of security.  Take the time to dig down into the snowpack before commiting to a slope to assess if this strong over weak layer exists.

The wet slab avalanche concern is a little more complex and harder to predict.  Overnight temperatures at lower elevations hovered around freezing and in the upper 20s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  We may or may not see a great refreeze on the surface.  This along with warm temperatures, sunny skies and mild refreezes over the last several days and nights has allowed water to percolate down into the snowpack. Cloudy skies today will help limit the solar input but temperatures will climb into the 40's at lower elevations and we may be hovering right on the line between snow and rain.  Although not much precip is forecasted throughout the day, there is some level of uncertainity as to how wet the surface will get and if water will continue to travel deeper down in the snowpack.  Avoiding slopes that are wet or saturated is a good idea, and pay attention to if you start to collapse or punch down into the snow.   

Thankfully we'll see more snow in the coming days that should help improve the skiing and riding condtions but will also increase avalanche danger in the coming days as snow stacks up!