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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2014–Mar 17th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Overview: A generally dry ridge of high pressure will develop on Monday and Tuesday with the passing of Sunday's frontal system. Another pulse will bring moisture to the region on Wednesday.Overnight Sunday: Up to 10cm of snow / Moderate to strong westerly winds / Freezing level at about 1500mMonday: Light flurries in the morning with a mix of sun and clouds / Light to moderate westerly winds with strong gusts / Freezing level at 1500mTuesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light northwesterly winds with strong gusts / Freezing level at 1500mWednesday: Moderate snowfall / Moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at 1500m

Avalanche Summary

Reports from recent days include a remotely triggered deep persistent slab avalanche with a heavy trigger in a low angle meadow. The slab released on the facet/crust weakness down 80-100 cm on a NW aspect at 2100 m. At the time of publishing on Sunday, we had very few reports from the field. That said, I'm sure there was a decent round of loose wet avalanche activity at lower elevations where rain fell. Storm/wind slab activity is likely to have occurred at higher elevations. Forecast solar radiation on Monday and Tuesday may trigger ongoing avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 35cm of accumulated storm snow was blown by strong winds into much deeper deposits in lee terrain. The recent snow overlies a fairly widespread melt-freeze crust which seems to exist on all aspects up to about 2000m. The bond between the new snow and the crust may be weak, especially where surface hoar crystals (up to 8mm) sit above the crust. With forecast solar radiation I would expect the new storm slab to increase in reactivity.The deeper facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February, now down 100-150 cm, is still the primary concern among most professional operators. The interface continues to show "sudden" shears in snowpack tests and has the potential to produce very large and destructive avalanches.I would suspect cornices are now large and potentially unstable.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.