Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today's shift back to stormy weather will be accompanied by generally safe avalanche conditions. Assess for lingering signs of wet unstable snow in extreme terrain and be cautious when traveling in areas with terrain traps.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    We're not quite out of the woods yet. Today's weather will help but not eliminate the chance of wet-loose avalanches on steep open slopes, especially near shallow spots like rock outcroppings and along convex rollovers. Have a safety buffer when exploring high-stakes terrain, as even small bits of moving snow could knock riders off their feet and grow larger than expected in size. Surfaces that experienced a superficial freeze overnight will begin to thaw on steep, exposed slopes as the day advances.     Three days have allowed time for water to soak and drain into the snowpack. Though the sun may not be able to cause as much radiant heating, the snowpack is still wet from previous rain and will continue to soften under the influence of warm temperatures. Avoid areas where snow is easily penetrable to the knee and observe for sings of warming such as, roller balls and pinwheels.    You can reduce your risk by traveling in terrain less than 35 degrees, or on shadier aspects, holding less penetrable snow. Ski-cutting inconsequential test slopes is a great way to gauge the potential for this problem.  

    (1/23/2024)

    Roller balls indicate wet snow becoming unstable in steep terrain around rock outcroppings. 

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

The tides are changing. The warm and wet spell is about to be replaced by a promising shift back towards stormy weather. Although the wet and warm weather wasn't much fun, it has greatly settled and homogenized our snowpack. A right-side-up trend has been observed on both Mount Shasta and in the Eddy mountains, with no other signs of lingering weak layers or instabilities. That being said, conditions can change rapidly. As we move forward, keep  your avalanche goggles on and remember that “today's snow surface may be tomorrow's weak layer.” 

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