Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today's storm will increase the avalanche danger. Wind slabs will develop on leeward aspects near and above treeline. Steer clear of steep slopes and features that encourage drifting and are convex in shape. Observe for signs of unstable snow like, large shooting cracks, rapid snow loading, and recent avalanches. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    New snowfall and a wind direction of W-SW blowing at moderate to strong speeds will develop drifts on north, east, and south aspects. This will cause stress on a pre-existing surface crust that could serve as a bed surface and a weak layer. As surface slabs build, the soft snow beneath will make for an unstable snowpack structure. If the storm comes to fruition, snow totals could reach double-digits. This will cause drifts to grow in size and sensitivity as the day advances. Five inches of snow could translate to a foot or more of drifted snow in specific areas.    By monitoring the depth of slab growth and how reactive it is, you also monitor the increasing potential for danger. Risky locations include the sharp, leeward sides of ridgelines and the pockets of cliffs and gullies. By identifying where blowing snow is occurring and using clues like, fresh wind lips, snow texture, and pillow-like surfaces, you can better gauge where wind-deposited snow may be lurking. 

    (1/10/2024)

     Wind transport and active snowfall rapidly accumulating on the leeward (left) side of the ridge. 

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's observed avalanches serve as a clear reminder of how our snowpack instabilities are most sensitive during peak storm intensities. Today will be no different. 

A stout surface crust that formed on January 22nd was observed up to 10,000 feet yesterday. The thickness of this crust varies with elevation and is extremely punchy in spots. Below is recent storm snow that is penetrable up to the knee. The underlying soft snow and the unknown integrity of the crust raises some uncertainty about whether it can support a large new load. The best way to find out, is to dig down and assess yourself.   

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