Lionhead Area

Human-triggered and natural avalanches are unlikely. While conditions are generally safe, there is a remote chance of triggering a larger avalanche on buried weak layers.

It is reasonable to step into steeper terrain, and in doing so, we accept a degree of residual risk. Following the fundamentals of safe travel in and around avalanche terrain provides a margin for error if we encounter a pocket of isolated instability: beacon, shovel, and probe, and one-at-a-time on steep slopes while partners watch from a safe position.

This forecast is dedicated to the memory of Tyler Stetson, who was killed in an avalanche in Beehive Basin in the Northern Madison Range eighteen years ago today.

Avalanches are unlikely, and the danger is rated LOW across the forecast area. The most recent reported avalanches were small to medium-sized slabs of wind-drifted snow that are now fading in the rearview mirror of last week (Reas Peak, Hyalite, Saddle Peak, Mineral Mountain). A trace of snow today will not create a notable change, even on wind-loaded slopes, unless flurries vastly outperform current models.

Periods of relative stability make it reasonable to step into steeper terrain. If we do, the fundamentals of safe travel matter (Tepee Basin video). Every group member should carry and know how to use a beacon, shovel, and probe, and travel one at a time on slopes steeper than 30 degrees, while partners watch from a safe location. Isolated pockets of unstable snow will generally be small, but can be dangerous in steep and extreme terrain, where a small slide could push a skier or rider off a cliff or into trees. Even without avalanches, objective hazards increase as slope angles rise.

The last large, persistent slab avalanches occurred ten days ago in the Lionhead area (observation) and three weeks ago in the Southern Madison Range (observation). Although triggering one is unlikely, terrain selection and disciplined travel protocols mitigate the risk of this low‑probability event.

Enjoy this stretch of relative stability, practice a mock avalanche rescue with your partners, and take in the wonderful mountain views. The snow remains soft with excellent coverage at higher elevations and on shady north-facing slopes. As my co-worker, Alex Marienthal, occasionally reminds me, “There is no bad snow, only bad attitudes!”