Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Fresh, low density snow and west-southwest wind will create for widespread blowing snow near and above treeline. Wind slabs are the priority hazard today. Below treeline, skiers or riders on steep, protected slopes may trigger loose-dry avalanches or storm slabs. Anytime it's snowing and blowing in the winter backcountry, your avalanche awareness knob should be turned on, and up! Today is no exception.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3

    West/southwest wind will be active today. Wind over the past 24 hours has blow predominantly out of the WSW, averaging 22 mi/hr with gusts to 67 mi/hr near treeline. Yesterday, wind was calm below treeline, but visible and audible above the tree tops. Plenty of low density snow remains available for wind transport. Expect cross loaded north and south aspects and leeward east aspects.Wind transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits it into thicker drifts on the downwind side. This forms slabs in somewhat predictable and specific locations, such as below the leeward side of ridges or in cross loaded gullies. Wind Slabs can range from soft to hard, thin to thick, and are often smooth, rounded, and sometimes sound hollow. Blowing snow and cracking or collapsing in drifted snow are clear warning signs of the problem.  Wind Slabs can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas.

     

    Visual depiction of wind loading and cross-loading dynamics

    Photo: Illustration from Allen & Mike’s Avalanche Book by Allen O’Bannon and Mike Clelland (Falcon Guides).

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    These avalanches typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack.  Dry Loose avalanches start at a point and entrain more snow as they fan out and move downhill. They vary in size, depending on how much snow is entrained and on the size of the terrain feature where they occur. Dry Loose avalanches can act as a trigger for slab avalanches. Dry Loose avalanches are the simplest problem to manage because of their predictable behavior and relatively smaller sizes. They are most hazardous if you are caught and carried into a terrain trap such as a gully, cliff, couloir, or thick trees.  Management strategies include sluff management and/or choosing less consequential terrain when this problem develops, commonly with new snow or weakening surface snow.

    Credit: Univ of British Columbia

    Example of dry loose avalanches

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Depending on the storm characteristics and snowfall amounts, this problem can vary from a thin, relatively harmless soft slab to a much thicker, harder, and more dangerous slab. Storm Slab problems typically last between a few hours and a few days and are commonly distributed widely across terrain that received similar snowfall amounts. To assess potential size, monitor storm totals and expect deeper accumulations at higher elevations and in leeward terrain.  Look for feedback, such as shooting cracks, on small, steep test slopes.  Shallow Storm Slabs are most dangerous on larger terrain features or slopes with terrain traps, such as trees, gullies, and cliffs.  You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. 

    Example of Storm Slab Avalanche

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

Avalanche Discussion

For all the hype, the latest storm cycle has been a titch underwhelming. That said, we are not complaining about the 20 inches of low density snow that has fallen over the past three days, and another 5–10 inches is possible by the end of the weekend. A westerly wind will be moving plenty of snow around near and above treeline and this is where the primary avalanche hazard will be. Yesterday, a ski tour from McBride Springs in below treeline terrain did not reveal any obvious red flags of avalanche danger. Near and above treeline, expect conditions to be much different. Observations have been limited.Skiing and riding conditions are excellent due to colder than normal temperatures. Below 6,000 feet, new snow totals are not impressive, but snow conditions get better quickly with elevation. Above 6,500 feet is where things get juicy.Access to our beloved backcountry terrain is still prolonged. The Everitt Memorial Highway and Castle Lake roads remain closed. It's unknown when it will open. Alternative access points include McBride Springs, the Nordic Center, Mount Shasta Ski Park, and Pilgrim and Deer Mountain OSV parks. You can ride a snow machine from FSR 31 road (Old McCloud) up to Old Ski Bowl. Please stay in boundaries. Here's a map of the riding boundaries for the Southside of Mount Shasta.Don't forget, our LAST of the season Avalanche Awareness (tonight) and Companion Rescue clinic (tomorrow) are this weekend. Visit our events page for details. 

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