Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  Human triggered wind slab avalanches are possible 1-2 feet in depth on slopes loaded by recent south wind at upper elevation.   Above freezing temperatures at low elevations and the potential for rain below 2000 feet will make human triggered and natural wet loose avalanches possible.  Light snowfall today above 2000' is not expected to elevate the avalanche hazard at mid-upper elevations.

Public avalanche forecasts are published Wednesday- Sunday.  The next forecast will be available 2/21.  

In the meantime, expect accumulating snowfall on Monday and Tuesday to form storm slabs and elevate the avalanche hazard.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The last few days of clear weather have brought on an unusual wind loading pattern.  Instead of our typical N-NE outflow wind we usually see during periods of high pressure, we have received south wind that has been stronger at high elevations than forecasted.  Expect to find northerly aspects loaded in specific areas on the lee side of  upper elevation ridgelines that will be possible for a person or machine to trigger 1-2 feet in depth.  These also exist at mid elevations , but have been observed as being shallower and more scattered.  

    Pay attention to wind slab distribution, depth, and sensitivity in the area you choose to travel.  Were signs of instability exist such as shooting cracks or collapsing triggering a wind slab remains possible.

    (2/15/2024) Photo: Joshua McDonald

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The snowfall event from 2/9-10 has now settled out to a little less than 2 feet in depth.  This snow is sitting on near surface facets in most locations.  Despite the weak snow that new snow is sitting on very few natural avalanches have been observed and users have been stepping out into steeper terrain with good stability observed.  

    The 2/9  interface is showing signs of bonding with ECT tests moving from moderate propagation scores directly following the storm to hard or no results in the last couple of days.  Above average daytime temperatures at all elevations followed by cold nights are promoting the healing process.  

    We can't yet rule out the possibility of human triggered avalanches at this layer due to the presence of facets at the interface and the depth of the slab above, which has the potential to make dangerous avalanches.

     

    (2/8/2024)

    Faceted snow was created during clear, calm, cold 2/6-8.  This snow is now buried by 2-3 feet of snow from 2/9-10 and is currently a layer of concern.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches will once again be possible for a person to trigger and may occur naturally.   The difference today will be that all aspects below 2000' will be affected as rain is expected, mostly along the coast.  Snow surfaces below 2000' have already been exposed to above freezing temperatures with sun crust on solar aspects.  Due to this previous exposure light rain is not expected to have a drastic effect on stability.  If temperatures don't go below the freezing mark tonight and rain becomes heavy tomorrow, expect for wet loose activity to become more widespread and include more mass.

    Pay attention to the moisture content of the surface snow.  If more than a few inches have become moist, realize that terrain steeper than 35° will have the potential for both human triggered and natural wet loose activity. 

Avalanche Discussion

Triggerring a windslab on northerly aspects at upper elevation remain the primary concern for today.  A pattern shift is occurring with a long duration precipitation event taking shape.  Freezing line is expected to reach 2000' during the day.  Only light accumulations are forecasted today that are not expected to increase the hazard above 2000'.  Below 2000' light rain on snow will spread the possibility of wet loose activity from solar aspects to all aspects.  

Looking forward, expect storm slabs to be forming on Monday that are being deposited on Surface Hoar that formed during the recent clear cycle.  Surface Hoar has been observed as more pronounced at lower elevation,  decreasing in size with an increase in elevation.  Expect for an increase in the avalanche hazard early in the week to coincide with the development of storm slabs.  Multiple feet of new snow accumulation is possible above 2000' by mid next week.

The persistent storm slab from 2/9-10 is showing signs of gaining strength, however, continued assessment is advised as faceted snow is notorious for producing unexpected avalanches well after the initial loading event.  Accumulating snowfall will be putting additional stress on this layer.

Wet loose activity will be possible on all aspects today as rain on snow is expected.  Expect for this avalanche problem to become more likely and include more mass tomorrow as rain may become heavy along the coast on Monday.

Glide cracks have been observed in all three forecast zones.   Some of these have recently been obscured by new snowfall, making them more difficult to identify.   Avoid traveling beneath these as full depth avalanches can release unexpectedly.

Valdez season snowfall: 240  inches

Valdez February snowfall: 34 inches

Valdez height of snowpack: 84 inches

Thompson Pass snowfall data is currently unavailable

46 mile height of snowpack: N/O

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