Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We still haven't had a hard freeze, so concern about wet avalanches remains. It is a little cooler and there is less avalanche activity than a few days ago, but it remains possible for you to trigger wet avalanches in places you find wet, sloppy snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures are remaining warm enough, with cloud cover, that we are still concerned about wet avalanche activity in the zone. Tuesday night and Wednesday night a crust formed, but it broke down quickly during the day. Friday will be a little warmer, and if any overnight crust forms we don't expect it to stick around for long. This means that steep slopes, especially on the southern half of the compass, might get wet and gloppy rather quickly and it's time to escape from those areas. 

    Give yourself options to exit wet slopes before it's too late. Keep your travel early or move to more shaded or lower-angle terrain. If you start sinking down in wet snow get out of the area. You may see cornice falls, glide avalanches, or large portions of snow falling off of rock features. Any of them may trigger a dangerous slab avalanche.  Wet avalanche activity is tough to predict in both timing, size, and type of wet avalanche, especially as warm temperatures continue for days. This leaves us with high uncertainty, and it's a good time for all of us to factor extra margins of safety into our travel plans for the day. 

    (2/12/2024)

    Example photo: Wet loose avalanches you could trigger on steep slopes, similar to what might happen on Friday if you find snow you're sinking down into. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures have cooled a lot since the tropical conditions closer to the weekend. Avalanche activity has slowed, but we're not getting the solid freeze that would give us the confidence to put the danger at Low. There's still a small chance that a large avalanche could surprise you, probably without any warning signs beforehand. Keep this on your mind as you plan your outing. 

I traveled to just outside the Stevens Pass ski area boundary on Thursday to assess conditions with a ski area forecaster. There was a shallow, soft overnight refreeze that my skis stayed on top, but feet sunk in 1 to 2+ feet. 1-2 inches of new snow was over the crust, and was just barely moist on all aspects.  Sun breaks caused the crust to break down on steep south-facing terrain midday. We dug a south facing pit at 5250ft, which consisted of consolidated large moist melt forms, and we didn't find any weaknesses. Pooling has backed off since the wetting isn't as active anymore.  The north-facing pit was surprising, with moist rounded grains to over a meter deep, before we found the Early February Crust at 115cm down. That crust was soft and moist. We had stubborn failures both midway down the moist rounded grains and in the Early February crust.  

Observers on Nason Ridge reported dry snow on northerly aspects at upper elevations on Tuesday. They also reported a solid re-freeze on more solar aspects. You can check out their full observation HERE. Since then we've had more cloud cover meaning more equal moistening on all aspects, and overnight freezes haven't been as strong. Another observer on Dirtyface Mountain in the neighboring East Central zone reported a large whumph on an east aspect at 5700 ft on Wednesday. The snow was moist, but it's a good reminder a weaker snowpack structure still exists just east of the pass. 

Wet avalanche activity was reported on a variety of aspects near Stevens Pass since 3/14. Some avalanches were large, up to D2, and were even occurring on northerly aspects at upper elevations. A large avalanche was reported on the 17th in Wenatchee Bowl, with a WNW aspect at 5500ft, and was about 2 feet deep. Observers reported a couple of larger (D2.5), widely propagating slab avalanches that likely occurred on 3/15-16 in the Chiwaukum range. While the failure plane is unknown, it most likely ran in an older layer of snow. Observers suspected it may have failed with a cornice fall. 

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