Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Human triggered avalanches are possible today.  Avoid loaded starting zones, wind drifts, mounds of snow, pillowed areas, and cornices.   These small avalanches may turn large by stepping down and triggering a persistent slab avalanche deeper in the snowpack.  Use caution and watch for signs of instability, shooting cracks and recent avalanches. Small avalanches can have  consequences when above exposed or rocky terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Winds near treeline have stayed out of the south and speeds in the light to moderate zone.   Winds will continue to build dangerous slabs, especially on leeward slopes, gullies, and cross-loaded terrain features. Avoid wind loaded starting zones on steep slopes. Watch for cracking and be aware of hollow sounding snow--both obvious signs of instability.  If large enough, a wind slab avalanche could step-down and release a persistent slab avalanche buried deep in the snowpack.

    (3/15/2024)

    Soft slab avalanche triggered in the Humphreys Cirque on a north aspect.  This photo only shows half the crown. It propagated over to the rock near the orange arrow.  The crown was 8"-20" running on a 1 finger slab bed surface. 

    Photo: Paul Dawson

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Basal facets buried at the bottom of the snowpack continue to persist on northern facing slopes in a few locations.  In general, these facets seem to be nearly gone, except in rocky and talus bed surfaces.  Over the last week to two weeks, in stability tests they have not produced propagation, including those conducted in pits averaging just 50 cm.  Nonetheless, skiers and riders should continue to exercise caution in the starting zones of steep chutes.  In addition, facets have been found near a crust layer in the upper part of the snowpack.  This upper layer of facets has been found beneath north, east, and west facing surface crusts.  These facets have been reactive in collum tests but also not producing propagation in ECT. This could change with new snow over 20". 

    The variable conditions across terrain make this problem difficult to assess, and it is possible that some slopes still harbor reactive layers near and at the bottom of the snowpack.  The only way to fully know if this persistent weak layer is still present and possibly reactivity is to dig.  Given the mostly rocky bed surface strewn across the San Francisco Peaks; this problem could still produce a small to large avalanche capable of burying a skier or rider.  

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals so far are 21" report from Arizona Snowbowl  and 18" at the Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL. Over 2" of SWE has been recorded at the Snowslide Canyon  SNOTEL site since Thursday. Yesterday our forecaster team triggered two small soft slab D1 avalanches both on north aspects. Wide spread cracking was reported on all aspects when stepping above the ski track. Watch for these sign of instability. 

 Backcountry travelers should also be aware that the persistent slab issue, while mostly gone, could still produce small to large avalanches, especially if a loose avalanche or wind slab were to step down deeper into the snowpack. If this were to occur, this type of avalanche would be much more dangerous as it might release with a crown height of several feet.  This could easily result in a large enough avalanche to cause a full burial.  The probability of this type of avalanche is very low, but north facing steep chutes and paths are the most probable locations.  

Many south facing slopes and above treeline areas have been stripped to rock over the last few weeks. This new snow will hide many of the rocks and obstacles just below the surface.  Ski and ride with care and watch for the remote possibility of small avalanches or funky conditions carrying a skier or rider over steep or rocky terrain.  

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Much thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season and a big thank you to all our participants!

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