Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avoid traveling on or under steep slopes if you encounter wet, sloppy snow under your feet or sled. Snowpack stability can worsen as crusts break down through the day. On slopes that hold dry snow, triggering large avalanches, 2-4 feet deep remains possible. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    In places that stayed cold and dry, you may still be able to trigger wide avalanches breaking on persistent weak layers buried 2-4 feet deep. We have a bit of uncertainty regarding this problem, but we suspect it lingers on shaded aspects above 6000 ft. Steep, rocky, wind swept terrain on the north side of the compass is most concerning. These avalanches can act surprisingly, often propagating widely or being triggered from a distance. You may or may not receive feedback before triggering this type of avalanche. Continue to be patient and conservative with your terrain selection. 

    (3/16/2024)

    A very large slab avalanche that likely occurred 3/15.Chiwaukum Range, 6,600ft, NW

    Photo: Stevens Pass Patrol

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Wet slabs are notoriously complicated to forecast and manage. The cooling trend is slowly helping the snowpack stabilize, however, it still remains possible to trigger wet avalanches in areas that you find wet, unsupportable snow. A thin surface crust doesnt always eliminate the chances of triggering one of these beasts. Slopes can remain unstable while water percolates down through the snowpack. Wet avalanches may run naturally, or you could trigger a widely propagating wet slab on deeply buried weak layers from Early February. 

    You can reduce your exposure to these wet avalanches by traveling on slopes that are supportable and firm. Be suspect of slopes greater than 30 degrees that feel wet and sloppy. Stay off of and out from large or consequential avalanche paths where you're sinking past your ankles in a mushy snowpack. 

    (1/29/2024)

    An example of a wet slab from earlier this season. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

The cooling trend is slowly helping the snowpack stabilize. You can generally expect safe avalanche conditions in places where you find a thick, supportable crust. However, be wary of slopes with a thin, fragile crust or slopes that hold wet, punchy snow. In these wet areas, wet slab concerns linger. On 3/20, an observer on Dirtyface Mountain reported a large whumph on an east aspect at 5700 ft. In this location, the surface snow was moist, but it serves as a reminder that weak layers are still lurking despite the recent warm-up.  

NWAC Forecaster Katie Warren traveled near Mission Ridge on 3/20 and found a more significant overnight refreeze, leading to a more supportable crust during the morning hours. She also reported the snow over the Early February Crust (buried 45cm deep) is still notably weaker than the overlaying slab, but the faceted grains were moist and rounded. You can check out her observation here. 

Observations are trickling in, reporting dry snow on more northerly aspects across the zone. On 3/19, an observer on Nason Ridge on the East Central/Stevens Pass border reported dry cold snow along northerly aspects. They also observed a solid refreeze on more solar aspects and plenty of evidence of wet avalanches from this past week. Check out their observation here. The Mission Ridge Pro Patrol also reported dry snow lingering on N-NE aspects off the ridge. The big question in these areas is the reactivity of the EFC. We suspect it's becoming harder to trigger, but we cant confidently say we're out of the woods yet.

If you head out, let us know what you find by submitting a public observation here! 

 

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