Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Temperatures will soar higher on Monday and wind will ratchet back a notch from the previous day, meaning we can expect snow to get softer and wetter than previous days. If you're sinking several inches into soft, mushy snow or see any avalanche activity, avoid similar steep slopes and the lower angle slopes beneath those features. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet avalanche activity will probably have a bit of an uptick from the previous day due to warmer temperatures and less wind. As the sun shines intensely onto east slopes in the morning, south-facing midday and westerly in the afternoon you can expect extensive snow softening and there may be subsequent avalanche activity.

    Even north-facing slopes with previously dry snow may get sticky and moist, starting as rollerballs and then avalanching as snow continues to get heavier. There may be more activity on north aspects than any other locations, since pockets of dry snow were noted on true-north aspects at mid and upper elevations on Sunday. 

    Snow could release from rocky faces, and cornices can collapse. These “shed-style” avalanches are hard to predict, and can happen at any time of day or night. Pay attention to what’s above you, and limit the time you spend on or under these features. If there's even a small chunk of snow that breaks off a rocky perch, it may initiate a larger wet avalanche on a slope beneath it.  This may be the extent of natural activity we see on Monday, although it's very difficult to predict exactly how it'll pan out. 

    Even if natural activity is limited, your entry onto a steep, mushy slope could initiate a wet avalanche, so if you're sinking more than 2-3 inches into the snow, just avoid steep slopes. In general, if you start seeing any avalanches that entrain more snow, growing deeper and larger than your average small slide, it's time to start thinking about retreating from any terrain that could be affected by these slides and giving these areas a wide berth. 

    (3/31/2024)

    Rollerballs and wet loose avalanches off steep rocky terrain in the Chiwakum Mountains. 

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

Preliminary Report: NWAC is saddened to report an avalanche fatality as a result of a cornice fall on Mount St. Helens. On Friday, March 29, 2024, a snowboarder summited the peak. While standing near the top, he triggered a cornice and fell into the crater triggering a large slab avalanche on the slope below. NWAC is working with the Skamania Co Sheriff’s office and SAR to compile a report. Our deepest condolences to the family, friends, and community.

Discussion: 

On shaded slopes near the tops of the highest peaks, a few pockets of cold, dry snow may still be holding on for dear life. We don’t expect significant wind slab concerns, however be on the lookout for them if you make your way to upper elevations. Especially consider the additional risk if just a small, isolated pocket knocked you off your feet in high consequence terrain, sending you off a cliff or into trees, rocks, or a gully. Consequences of even a tiny avalanche can be magnified in these circumstances. 

An NWAC Forecaster teamed up with a Steven's Patrol Forecaster to investigate the effects of our current tropical weather in the ski area vicinity (OBSERVATION). They found a near-isothermal snowpack with moist melt forms all the way down to the ground on the southern half, although boot penetration mainly only reached just over a foot deep. They found a few small, dry isolated pockets of snow on steep true north slopes. North aspects had a few crusts over the mid-March crust, and snow was faceting (weakening) between those layers. Despite the breezy day, no wind transport was seen. They tried to initiate wet loose avalanches but it just wasn't quite happening, although there was evidence of natural activity from previous days. This isn't to say that there could have been activity elsewhere in the zone on Sunday. 

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