Avalanche forecast

Provo

Issued Dec 31, 2020valid to Jan 1, 2021Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The most likely place to trigger an avalanche today will be upper elevation slopes facing NW, N, NE, & E especially if they have some wind-blown snow on them.The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE in these locations. Otherwise, triggering an avalanche has become harder to do, and the danger is MODERATE on other upper elevation slopes and on all mid elevation slopes.

A LOW avalanche danger exists on all low elevation slopes.

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
Overall the snowpack has been very thin which has led to it becoming very weak and faceted. To get an avalanche, there needs to be a slab on top of this weak snow which is most likely at upper elevations especially on slopes with wind drifted snow.

The most likely places to trigger a slide today are slopes with some wind-loading especially on more northerly facing slopes with the weakest snow. The little extra weight of wind drifted snow keeps the buried facets stressed and ready to fracture.

Where to ride today? Two options exist:

Ride slopes less than 30 degrees that aren't steep enough to slide.

Ride slopes facing south where this persistent weak layer generally doesn't exist and avoid pockets of wind drifted snow. These slopes don't have much snow but have become much more supportable.

Special Announcement

The Utah Avalanche Center podcast's second episode of season 4 is live - Managing Risk with Avalanches, Managing Risk with a Pandemic - A Conversation with state epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn.

Stream here or tune in wherever you get your favorite podcasts

Read a few short anecdotes in a blog from UAC staff about how avalanches can surprise us

Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.

Recent Activity

There was one small avalanche spotted yesterday in Broads Fork. Cracking and loud audible collapses continue to be reported by many especially in less traveled areas like Box Elder, Broads Fork, Maybird, and Mill B South. Snowpit tests continue to show propagation (photo below from Box Elder Peak by S. Donovan), meaning that avalanches can still be triggered. Further south near Mt Nebo, snowmobilers found about 2 feet of snow on shady aspects that is very weak and faceted.

Snow and Weather

This morning a trace of snow has fallen as of 5 a.m. Temperatures are generally near 20 deg F and about 10-14 degrees warmer than yesterday. Winds yesterday shifted from the northwest to west and then southwest this morning blowing 6-10 mph gusting to 20 mph.

Today an inch of two of snow should accumulate mainly this morning. Skies will remain cloudy and temperatures should warm into the mid 20s F. Winds should remain light and slowly shift and come from the northwest.

This weekend will be dry, but some snow could come Monday night and again Wednesday night. No major accumulations are expected but we'll take what we can get.

General Announcements

Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures