Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It will be easy to trigger an avalanche up to 2’ deep on a layer of buried surface hoar. This can be found at mid and upper elevations and will be more concerning where fresh wind slabs have formed over this layer. Active wind loading is expected to create new wind slabs as well as add stress to cornices at upper elevations. This weak layer is tricky to assess so the safest option is to avoid steep slopes especially wind loaded terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    It will be easy to trigger an avalanche 1 to 2’ deep on a layer of buried surface hoar. It seems like this layer is more widespread on sheltered slopes between 1,500' and 2500’ and harder to find on slopes exposed to the wind. It will be even easier to trigger this weak layer where wind slabs exist. Last week a skier triggered an avalanche on Mt Alice that may have been from a wind slab releasing on a buried weak layer. We have less information about these zones so if you get out today and see something feel free to let us know!

    The tricky thing is knowing where these weak layers are and how weak they are. Traveling tests such as hand pits may or may not produce concerning results. Look for recent avalanches and shooting cracks underneath you. Test small safe slopes to see if you can trigger a small avalanche. The main point is that just because you don’t find them does not mean they are not there. Rather than trying to outsmart the problem it is safer to enjoy soft snow in less consequential terrain.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong overnight winds will likely form wind slabs up to 2’ deep that will be easy to trigger at upper elevations. Ridgetop winds from the east are expected to increase to 30+ mph in the afternoon. If these winds arrive sooner fresh wind slabs will be forming on slopes being loaded with wind blown snow. 

    Watch for active wind loading. Shooting cracks and snow that feels stiff underneath you are good indicators you are traveling on a wind slab. Terrain features that start mellow then “rollover” and become steeper as well as gullies are likely places where wind slabs exist. Sheltered slopes that are protected from the wind will be a safer option and likely have softer snow. 

    Cornices have been falling naturally in Turnagain Pass which is likely the case in Seward and Lost Lake. These will continue to get stressed today. Look for cornices on slopes above you and try to avoid spending time under them. GIve them plenty of room on ridgelines as well.

    Loose snow avalanches: Look out for dry loose avalanches in steep terrain where the snow is dry. Wet loose avalanches are also likely below 2,000’ where the snow is warm. 

    (2/27/2025)

    Small slab on a small piece of wind-loaded terrain.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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