Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

We are back into the spring transition, with slab avalanche issues on one half of the compass and wet avalanche problems on the other. Yesterday, two large human-triggered avalanches occurred on northeast to east-facing slopes, while many small wet avalanches ran on southerly-facing slopes. Heightened avalanche conditions remain for both of these avalanche problems, and you will need to take your time to evaluate avalanche terrain and identify the potential features of concern. Otherwise, you could get involved in a potentially dangerous avalanche. Some of the most suspect terrain features will be previously wind-loaded at near and above treeline elevations and steep sun-exposed slopes where you find a few inches of wet snow and/or see wet avalanche activity. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    In the past week, we've observed many large to very large slab avalanches breaking on weak layers in the upper snowpack and near the ground.  Feedback on the problem will be variable and infrequent. These issues are most concerning on wind-loaded terrain on colder, shadier aspects highlighted by the persistent slab rose.  Avoid steep, wind-loaded slopes, and wind-affected terrain with variable snow depths to reduce your risk.   Persistent slab instabilities are more isolated below treeline; stay alert on very steep or unusually shallow slopes. Southerly aspects typically lack the problem.  

    This human-triggered avalanche occurred on Sunday. The crown is 6ft tall in some places. Mt Axtell. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The spring transition is back this week. As the sun warms the snow surface and temperatures climb above freezing, the threat of wet avalanche activity will increase. Wet loose avalanches will first develop on steep easterly facing slopes, before following the sun around the compass. Consider moving to colder snow and out of steep terrain if you find a few inches of wet snow and/or see large roller balls in the terrain. Where this avalanche problem overlaps near the persistent slab and wind slab avalanche problem, there is potential for a small wet avalanche to pull out a larger slab avalanche. 

    An example of wet avalanches that ran off the SE side of Cascade Mountain earler this winter. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Old wind slabs have likely become stubborn to triggering as they have aged and snow surfaces become firmer. This avalanche problem may temporarily become more reactive when it gets baked by the sun or could step down to a more dangerous persistent slab avalanche. Keep your eyes peeled for this potential problem below ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features, and consider routing around that specific terrain. 

    Examples of some large wind slabs and persistent slabs that have recently released on the east face of Gothic Mountain. 

Avalanche Discussion

In the NW Mountain forecast area, there have been large to very large avalanches documented in 9 out of the last 10 days. Meanwhile, the SE Mountain forecast area rejoined the large avalanche party after Saturday's snowstorm. Some of these avalanches released on a layer of facets that were buried earlier in March and have propagated across entire avalanche paths, like this recent avalanche in the Climax Chutes. At the same time, other avalanches are stepping down and taking out nearly the whole snowpack, like this avalanche on Mt Axtell. There are so many more examples in the avalanche database. Boiling down the data, previously wind-loaded terrain is producing the most avalanche activity, especially northeast to east facing aspects. 

A spring warmup is taking over conditions this week. Right now, we are estimating that the wheels will stay on the bus into Tuesday, and then that bus will be out of control by Wednesday and Thursday. In the short term, wet avalanche activity will increase in size and frequency each afternoon. We further can't rule out the potential of cornices falling and triggering large to very large avalanches. We are banking on a good enough freeze tonight to help keep conditions in check on Tuesday. Then, Tuesday and Wednesday nights may see a poor freeze, and high temperatures will be way above freezing. 

These links will take you to a more detailed summary of last weeks conditions. Text verson here, or video version here.

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