Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It has been just over 24 hours since storms deposited 35-45 inches of snow, forming wind slabs and adding significant load to the existing snowpack. While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche has decreased, it remains elevated, particularly above treeline. Backcountry travelers are most likely to trigger small to large avalanches on steep, wind loaded slopes near and above treeline, however, these smaller avalanches could potentially step down to buried weak layers triggering a larger avalanche.

Backcountry travelers are urged to carefully assess snow conditions at mid and upper elevations (i.e., above ~11,000') before stepping out into steep and consequential terrain. Travelers should exercise heightened caution below steep loaded ridgelines, gullies, and convex rollovers and retreat if any instability is observed.

Coverage has improved, but rock or log strikes will be possible, especially on W, SW, S, and SE aspects.

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Generally, southwesterly winds transported snow on Friday and Friday night. Over the past 24 hours, winds were moderate to high and primarily northwest; however, the specific direction often depended on local terrain features. Thus, reactive wind slabs are expected to be on most aspects above treeline and leeward terrain features on Sunday. On Saturday, shooting cracks were noted in areas with more consolidated slabs and a very small soft slab avalanche was triggered on a test slope.

    Backcountry travelers should carefully assess or avoid loaded starting zones, wind drifts, mounds of snow, pillowed areas, and cornices while traveling in avalanche terrain. One way to assess these instabilities is through small and inconsequential test slopes, which can be invaluable in assessing the reactivity of wind slabs on specific aspects and around terrain features.

    Moreover, it is imperative for travelers to consistently employ appropriate travel techniques aimed at minimizing risks to themselves, their party, and other individuals in the vicinity. These measures include only exposing one person at a time to avalanche terrain while skiing and while egressing. Likewise, skin tracks and egress routes should aim to utilize local terrain features to minimize the likelihood of triggering an avalanche.

    Finally, the force of a wind slab avalanche may "step down", triggering failures in deeper, persistent weak layers above and near treeline on NW-N-NE-E aspects.

    Crown line from a very small soft slab avalanche. Crown was ~15" high and 15 feet wide.

    Photo: Tanner Porter

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–3

    KPAC has yet to observe a definitive persistent slab avalanche this season. Still, persistent weak faceted layers (basal facets and depth hoar) are in the lower ~1/4 of the snowpack and several facet layers exist in the middle of the snowpack. Instability tests have not produced consistent propagating fractures in these layers in nearly two weeks. However, new snow and wind drifted snow are creating larger and more cohesive slabs coupled with a significant warming trend, possibly pushing the weak layers to the point of failure. Although these avalanches are unlikely, there is high uncertainty of the distribution and reactivity of this problem across the peaks, and the potential size of the avalanche continues to make this problem a critical consideration.

Avalanche Discussion

On Saturday, several recent small (<D2) soft slab avalanches were noted within the Humphreys Cirque. In addition,  numerous shooting cracks were found across several aspects and a very small soft slab avalanche was triggered on a steep rollover at ~11,600. Expect the recent wind to amplify these problems and the sudden warm-up to potentially cause additional strain on the snowpack. Similarly, small wet loose avalanches are possible this afternoon, especially on slopes with high sun exposure and lower elevations with the warmer temperatures. Generally, these wet loose avalanches start on the surface of the snowpack, as small point releases, but will entrain more snow as they descend the slope.  On slopes that have wet and slushy snow, the risk of wet loose avalanches increases, especially near cliffs or rocks.

Recent observations indicate that the snowpack is characterized by poor to fair structure, moderate to high strength, and limited propagation propensity; however as a rule, avalanche danger often increases when there are large changes to the snowpack and within the last 72 hours, 3-4" of snow water equivalent has been added to the existing snowpack and a very warm day is forecasted on Sunday. 

Due to limited snow this season, uncertainty about the backcountry snowpack is significantly elevated, and KPAC recommends careful snowpack assessment, conservative decision making, and avoiding wind loaded slopes. It's spring break weekend and many backcountry powder hounds have yet to taste the goods during the dry and warm winter. Thoroughly assessing the snowpack of your entire route before committing to avalanche terrain will be key this weekend. 

Lack of snow and warm weather for much of the season means plenty of rocks and logs just under the new snow, especially on W, SW, S, and SE aspects. Lower elevations and previously wind-scoured slopes above treeline will have thin spots. 

If you get out, please submit your observations or email us at [email protected]. 

KPAC has documented evidence of several avalanches this season - Avalanche Database.  

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