Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist at all elevations as recent snowfall and wind have built sensitive slabs on top of very weak and fragile faceted layers near the ground.  You can trigger an avalanche on the surface in the storm snow that could be big enough to injure or bury you, but there is also the possibility that it could step down into deeper weak layers taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  These persistent slab avalanches could break widely across the slope and most likely would not be survivable. Pay attention to obvious warning signs like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks as these are indications you've found unstable snow.  It's possible to trigger an avalanche from a long distance away so avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper 30 degrees today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Most slopes currently have very weak and fragile facets and depth hoar on or near the ground that formed during the prolonged November dry periods. Recent snow and wind loading have built cohesive slabs on top of these persistent weak layers leading to this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak.  These weak layers haven't received much of a break over the last week and will continue to struggle to adjust to the recent load from last night. At lower elevations where slabs are not as thick, you're more likely to get these weak layers to collapse to trigger an avalanche. At upper elevations, weak layers are buried under deeper stiffer slabs and may take you finding that "sweet spot" in likely trigger points near rock outcroppings and on the margins of the slab. These persistent slab avalanches can break widely across the slope or terrain features and could be very large taking with it most of the season's snowpack and most likely would not be survivable.  You can trigger one of these large avalanches from a long distance away, so continue to give steep slopes above you wide berths.      

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    You can trigger an avalanche in the new storm snow at all elevations. Over the last week, we've had light to moderate snowfall almost every day along with moderate to strong winds. The cumulative total is now close to 3 feet of snow.  With an abundance of snow in the fetches, transportable wind speeds today will easily drift snow into deeper stiffer slabs at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Avoid slopes that are actively loading from wind-transported snow.   Triggering an avalanche on the surface can be dangerous on its own, but there is a strong possibility that an avalanche starting on the surface will step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.   

    The 8 to 10 inches that fell in the last 24 hours came in as low-density snow (about 5%).  In steep wind-sheltered terrain, you may find loose snow sluffing on the surface, which should be relatively harmless other than potentially knocking you off your feet.  These loose snow sluffs have the potential though to start as a point release and quickly add weight to a slope as it travels downhill impacting deeper weak layers and creating a larger avalanche.  

Avalanche Discussion

8 - 10 inches of low-density snow yesterday afternoon and evening have added to storm totals over the last week that are now at 35" of snow and 3.1" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  Snowfall is winding down this morning as we'll see a brief lull between the storms over the next two days. The next system pushes into the area Monday into Tuesday bringing more snow and wind and capping a very active weather week.  Winds died down overnight but were in the teens and 20's gusting in the 30's when the bulk of the snow fell early in the evening.  

An early report this morning of a large natural avalanche overnight below treeline on a NE aspect is indicative of how the snowpack is continuing to struggle to adjust to the latest round of loading. Over the last week, we've seen steady light to moderate snowfall and transportable wind speeds that have been loading slopes and slowly pushing us closer to a tipping point of the faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Conditions really ramped up Wednesday afternoon as the snowpack became a lot more sensitive in travels, with widespread collapses, shooting cracks, and human-triggered avalanches. We also started seeing more natural avalanche activity at all elevations with some slopes producing large avalanches breaking on or near the ground and running long distances into the flats.  This latest round of snow will continue to test the snowpack and we may continue to see more natural avalanche activity today. 

It probably sounds like a broken record at this point, as we've seen the persistent slab problem keep avalanche conditions elevated for much of January. Avoiding the persistent slab avalanche problem in our mountains right now is difficult as almost all slopes you'll encounter will have this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak. Powder fever can have a strong power of luring you into steeper terrain until it's too late as the consequences remain quite high. Go in with a conservative mindset and use cautious terrain selection, sticking to lower-angle terrain less than 30 degrees that don't have steep slopes above you.  It's not all bad news as hopefully, with a deepening snowpack, we'll start to turn the corner and see the persistent weak layers near the ground start to heal and strengthen in the coming weeks.  However that process doesn't happen overnight and will take some time.  Until then we'll continue to need to be patient before stepping out into steep terrain.  You can still find great skiing and riding in lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain that doesn't have steep slopes overhead.     

 

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