Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

6-10" of new snowfall along with northwest winds have created sensitive wind slabs above 7000 feet. You are likely to encounter a wind slab avalanche 1-2 feet deep, especially on east-facing terrain. Dry loose avalanches have increased in size and likelihood today on all aspects and elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, 4-6" of snow fell with moderate west/northwest winds. Last night, we saw an additional 2-4" with continued northwest winds gusting into the low 20s MPH. 6-10" of new snow coupled with northwest winds will likely create sensitive wind slabs above 7000 feet. These slabs of wind-deposited snow will most likely be confined to eastern aspects, particularly southeast-facing slopes. However, local terrain features can alter wind patterns and all aspects above 7000 feet should be evaluated. Wind slab avalanches could be anywhere from 1-2 feet deep and resting on very soft snow from yesterday. Strong over weak snow is a red flag.

    Watch for clues like shooting cracks and whumphfing. Look for drifts and pillows that indicate wind direction. If you feel a hollow or slabby feeling under your skis or sled, you've encountered a dense snow over weak setup (wind slab).  The best way to mitigate this problem is to switch to a different aspect or lower slope angle. 

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    The upper foot of our snowpack is comprised of very soft snow. Skiers have reported dry loose avalanches (a.k.a. sluff) in steep terrain this week. With more soft snow yesterday and today, dry loose avalanches have increased in size and likelihood. Dry loose avalanches may be found on nearly all aspects and elevations over 30 degrees, but will be most likely on slopes steeper than 35 degrees.  Although dry loose avalanches may not be large enough to bury a person, they certainly could push you over rocks and cliffs or into trees.

    (1/25/2023)

    Lick Creek on Wednesday on a West aspect. Loose snow avalanche or sluff that was submitted to our Observations page from skiers that were able to trigger the upper loose snowpack and had it run farther than they expected.

    Photo: GH

Avalanche Discussion

Today's avalanche forecast is sponsored by MileHigh Powersports of McCall. Thanks for supporting the Payette Avalanche Center.

Within the last 24 hours our advisory area has seen 6-10" of new snowfall with northwest winds. As of 6:30 this morning, snow is still falling and is expected to continue through the morning. The northern portion of our advisory area is at the upper end of those snow totals while the southern zone (West Mountain) has seen 2-4". Strong winds will be drifting this new snow into dense slabs at upper and middle elevations. The other avalanche problem to contend with today will be dry loose snow easily moving (sluff) in terrain steeper than 30 degrees, especially slopes over 35 degrees. Each of these problems in isolation are manageable. However, two different avalanche problems are much more difficult to manage than one. Both of these problems have increased in their likelihood and size within the past 24 hours. With more snow and wind today, avalanche conditions will be changing throughout the day.

South-facing slopes may be harboring melt-freeze crusts. New snowfall on a crust is a simple recipe for an avalanche. Evaluate south-facing slopes first before committing to more consequential terrain. 

Don't miss the Friends of the Payette Avalanche Center's (FPAC) Annual Fundrasier today!

Friends of the PAC fundraiser during Winter Carnival! January 28 @ 3:00 pm - 10:00 pm  $5

Join us for this season’s fundraiser at a NEW location and time! We’ve reserved the Ponderosa Center Terrace downtown Saturday afternoon and evening, January 28th, the first weekend of Winter Carnival. Tentative plans are to have live music with local bands starting at 4pm with Shawn Tracy until 5:30, then our forecasters providing a season state-of-the-snowpack update, followed by fireworks at 6:00pm, then Jughandle Parade plays from 6:30 to 8:30, and finally West Mountain Takeover plays until 10pm! All this time, we hope to have beer concessionaires providing adult and non-alcoholic beverages, and ongoing beacon and rescue practice opportunities.