Heightened avalanche conditions exist at all elevations in the backcountry and the danger is MODERATE. People could trigger shallow slab avalanches of wind drifted storm snow or loose avalanches (dry or moist sluffs) on slopes steeper than 30°. Although people are now pretty unlikely to trigger dangerous large deep slab avalanches, a smaller avalanche overrunning a slope with poor snow structure could cause a much larger and harder slab avalanche to fail on a deep persistent weak layer buried 2 to 5 feet deep.
Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Small soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow are likely for people to trigger on steep slopes today. We expect the stability of the new snow to rapidly improve today with a break in snowfall..
Even though yesterday morning's east winds were not all that strong, they caused wind slab formation west facing terrain and possibly in some unexpected places.
People or small slides could trigger large and dangerous hard slab avalanches failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer. Poor snow structure still exists in many places where a person could trigger the slope from an area where the hard slab is shallower, and a dangerous deep hard slab avalanche could result. A person might trigger and avalanche from around slope margins, in steep rocky terrain, and in generally shallow outlying mid and upper elevation areas. In the Logan Zone, terrain with generally shallower snow like the Wellsville Range and the Logan Peak Area is most suspect.
Widespread large natural avalanches occurred in the Wellsville Range during and at the end of this week's storm, some running into lower elevation bench areas. We had a chance to examine a huge one (or two) in Rattlesnake Canyon on Friday, and here's the report. No signifcant new avalanches were reported in the Logan Zone since last week's storm.
We should be able to find very nice powder conditions in the backcountry today. Stability has improved significantly in most areas across the zone but yesterday's storm kept elevated avalanche conditons at all elevations. It would be difficult but not impossible for people to trigger dangerous hard slab avalanches failing on the now deeply buried November persistent weak layer. Today, people are more likely to encounter shallow avalanches of wind drifted snow and loose moist or dry avalanches on steep slopes. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 10 inches of new snow from yesterday's storm. It's 22° F and there is 90 inches of total snow. At the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, winds are blowing around 15 mph from the south-southwest and the temperature is 16° F.
Today, we can expect mostly cloudy skies with a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. High temperatures at 8500' are expected to be around 25° F, with moderate winds blowing from the southwest switching from the southeast in the afternoon.
Tonight will be mostly cloudy and a good chance of snow is expected, with 1 or 2 inches of accumulation possible. Overnight temperatures will be around 16° F, and expect 15 mph winds, blowing from the east-southeast.
Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with a good chance of snow but little accumulation expected. Expect high temperatures of around 24° F and 8 to 10 mph winds from the south, veering from the northwest in the afternoon.
--->Our next chance for significant snowfall comes with the next storm beginning on Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday....
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
