Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow are likely on all aspects near and above treeline.

The greatest danger exists on steep slopes facing NW-N-NE-E where an avalanche triggered in the new snow could step down into the buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

Travel tip: Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees that have more than about 8" of new snow, especially where wind drifted. Utilize test slopes to see how the new snow is behaving and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Strong south through westerly winds will form sensitive drifts in the new snow. Located on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. On steep, northerly aspects a triggered wind slab has the potential to step down into the buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Avoid, all steep, wind drifted slopes today.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    As new snow accumulates, so will the likelihood for soft slab avalanches in steep terrain on all aspects. Suspect all steep slopes that have more than about 8" of new snow. Pay attention to how the new snow is behaving and utilize test slopes. Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. Blocks of snow between your skis on the skin trail indicate that a slab has developed. In thinner snowpack areas, or in areas of more radical terrain, a triggered storm slab could step down into the buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    The widespread persistent weak layer (PWL) that formed in November is showing signs of strengthening and stability tests continue to be less reactive. This means avalanches are becoming harder to trigger but the consequences remain the same. Any avalanche triggered on this deeply buried PWL would be large and un-survivable. The greatest risk exists on steep, wind drifted, northerly aspects above treeline. As we start to think about easing into larger terrain, areas to avoid include slopes with steep convexities or blind break-overs; thin snowpack areas along slope margins or near rock outcrops; and areas of steep, rocky, more radical terrain.

    A deep and strengthening snowpack exists in most areas near treeline and below. In these areas the November persistent weak layer is deeply buried and becoming harder to affect. Above treeline, snow depths are much more variable and trigger points are much more plentiful, and the problem can't be ruled out yet.

Special Announcement

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Road Conditions: The road will grow increasingly more challenging today as new snow accumulates. 4x4 and good tires are required.

Grooming: All trails will be covered in new snow today.

Recent Activity

No new avalanches have been reported. Here is the La Sal Avalanche Database.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 6" 72 Hour Snow 6" Season Total Snow 144" Base Depth at Gold Basin 64"

Winds on Pre Laurel Peak SSE 25-30 G40 Temp 25F

Weather

A broad low-pressure system across the Western US is piping deep moisture from an atmospheric river into the region on a southerly flow. Heavy snowfall is expected this morning with a gradual tapering throughout the day. Another 6"-10" are possible. Winds will shift to the SW and then more westerly later today but will remain in the 20-25 mph range with gusts in the 30's along ridge tops. We'll see a lull in the action on Monday with the next system moving in on Tuesday

General Conditions

Powder skiing and riding in stormy conditions will be the order of the day. Soft slab avalanches within the new snow will become increasingly more likely as snow accumulates. Blowing and drifting of the new snow will create sensitive wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in wind exposed terrain. Pay attention to how the new snow is behaving and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. Blocks of snow between your skis on the skin trail indicate that a slab has formed.

The November persistent weak layer is deeply buried in most areas and is becoming harder to affect. Areas of concern include places where the snowpack is thinner like along slope margins, near rocky outcrops, or along steep convexities. As observed by snow professional Chris Benson and local observer Travis Nauman, this problem usually sticks with us for longer in the season, but it is showing signs of abating. We're not ready to green light it yet, and especially with today's weather conditions, steer clear of these noted areas of concern where deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches remain possible.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Check out this Week in Review video for a recap of snow conditions prior to the storm.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.

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