Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and rain moved into the area on Thursday and Friday at all elevations across the Kootenai. This added weight and reduced strength of the upper snowpack. Anticipate loose-wet avalanches releasing naturally at elevations below 6,000' on Saturday in steep terrain.  Avoid terrain steeper than 35 degree's today at Treeline and below if temperature's are above the freezing mark.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Thursday we saw an abrubt weather change in the mountains at 2:30 P.M. when the weather switched from snow to rain and warm wet air moved in at upper elevations. The snow became wet and sticky and small loose-wet avalanches began to appear in steep terrain. Snotel observations showed the temperatures at mid-elevations climbing as high as 39 degrees Friday.  The loose wet avalanche problem will be present again today with the freezing mark predicted to hover around 6,000' then lowering to 3,500' on Sunday. Small natural avalanches are likely in steep terrain today at treeline and below. At upper elevations the snowpack will refreeze and make triggering avalanches unlikely today.

    Pay attention to the consequences of getting caught in a small avalanche today and choose terrain accordingly. Avoid steep terrain above cliffs and tight gullies, any terrain that could cause injury or increase deposition of avalanche debris should be avoided.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Through out the week we have been observing light to moderate southwest winds that continue to create wind slabs on north and east aspects below ridgelines and in loading zones at treeline and above. Temperature's are predicted to drop, which will lock the upper snowpack together and reduce the likelihood of triggering these wind slabs today.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Buried surface hoar lurks 10-12" below the surface of the snowpack at treeline on north and east facing terrain and it's distribution may be hard to pin down. The snowpack above and below this layer is soft, which is making it less likely to be reactive in most locations. Warm air and rain saturated the upper snowpack Thursday and Friday, with temperature's predicted to drop back below the freezing mark the upper snowpack will refreeze and become firm. The potential for triggering this weak layer will decrease as the surface turns to crust and bridges this weak layer.

Avalanche Discussion

I would like to take a minute to point out that "avalanche advisories" are written and valid for a 24 hour period. Within that time frame much can change regarding stability for better or worse, often that is influenced by temperature or moisture. This is such a time in avalanche forecasting. Often these forecasts rely on knowledge of what has happened recently and woven into what is predicted. Today we should see things improve stability wise at upper elevations as the temperatures were dropping last night. At elevation's above 6,000' the snowpack will likely lock back together as the temperature's drop. Regardless of the weather forecast, pay attention to the temp's and signs of warming at your location. Loose-wet slides and roller balls are clues that the upper snowpack is weak and has potential to create small avalanches in steep terrain. Unfortunately as the temps drop the surface will not only become more stable, but also firm and crusty, which really isn't great for riding in my opinion. Check out the video below for a quick summary of conditions and a big thanks to Turner Patroller Mike Manion for providing additional observations on Friday!!

 

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