Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

At upper elevations is where you'll find freshly formed wind slabs from new snow and strong westerly winds.  These newly formed slabs, will be relatively shallow, Avoid slopes where you find more than 6 inches of new snow paying attention to signs of instability like shooting cracks off your boards. A smaller wind slab avalanche has the possibility of stepping down into weak layers creating a larger avalanche.  Deeper down in the snowpack, weak layers near the ground and in the middle of the snowpack continue to linger.  Although becoming harder to trigger, if you were to trigger an avalanche on one of the deeper weak layers it could produce a very large avalanche that could have catastrophic consequences.  Sticking to wind-sheltered terrain under 35 degrees without steep slopes overhead will provide better and safer riding conditions. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds and a little bit of snow overnight will build fresh shallow wind slabs. These slabs may appear to be pillowed or lens-shaped and will be found on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features at upper elevations. Avoid slopes where you find 6 or more inches of fresh snow or slopes that are actively loading, paying attention to signs of instability like shooting cracks on the surface. These wind slabs may not be bonding well to the old existing surfaces of crusts and hard-pressed snow. Triggering a smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.  

    Cornices continue to remain a concern and may break back further than expected on ridgelines or provide a big trigger to a slope below if it releases.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak layers near the ground and in the middle of the snowpack continue to linger within the snowpack.  You're more likely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche at upper elevations where there are more reactive slabs on the surface.  Obvious signs of instability like collapses will most likely not be present, but if you were to trigger an avalanche on one of these weak layers, it could produce a large and dangerous avalanche.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops as these are areas you're more likely to impact deeper buried weak layers. 

Avalanche Discussion

This will be the last weekend of regular avalanche forecasting for the season.  

The last several days have finally felt like spring, with warm temperatures, and the standard wind we see here in the desert SW.  Winds were cranking yesterday with gusts in the 60 mph range. A quick return of winter brought 3 to 4 inches of snow overnight, with continued strong westerly winds.  It won't be enough to increase the avalanche danger but expect to find more reactive shallow wind slabs today on the leeward sides of ridgelines.  Spring-like weather returns tomorrow continuing through the weekend. Long-term models are showing windy weather next week, with chances of light snow showers, but the bulk of the system looks to stay to our north.  

Over the last several days, lower elevations have felt the impacts of warm temperatures and sunny weather.  Snow from the last couple of weeks has been settling quickly (we've lost 10" of snow in the last 3 days) and the snowpack has become more supportable. Although the avalanche danger is low below treeline, that does not mean that there is no avalanche danger.  You may find isolated slopes at these lower elevations where you could trigger an avalanche.  Open exposed slopes on northerly aspects will be most suspect. 

The persistent slab avalanche problem is a little more complex as weak layers near the ground continue to remain a concern, especially near treeline terrain where the snowpack prior to last week's big storm was still relatively shallow.  Northerly and easterly slopes will be the most suspect, as they have seen the most amount of loading. Higher up the snowpack, you may find, weak faceted layers beneath cohesive slabs around harder slabs and crusts. We haven't found these layers to be widespread, like the depth hoar near the ground, but could be present on the slopes you're traveling on.   

What gives me some pause, is that if you were to trigger an avalanche on one of these weak layers, it could produce a very large avalanche that may not be survivable.  As we push further away from the last significant loading event the likelihood of triggering a persistent slab avalanche is lower, but the consequences remain quite high if you did.  It's a snowpack that is still hard to fully trust, even though we're about to turn the calendar to April.  It's still very much a winter snowpack at upper elevations, as we haven't seen sustained warm temperatures during the day, which brings the freeze/thaw cycle we typically see in the spring.   Lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer and better riding options.  

 

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