Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today's message is simple. Avoid being in or near avalanche terrain above treeline. A large moisture-rich snow load with sustained moderate southwesterly winds will continue to stress the snowpack. Increased risk for natural and human-triggered storm slab avalanches is on the rise for all aspects and elevations. Wind slabs on leeward catchment zones near and above treeline will continue to grow in size and sensitivity. Avoid traveling in steep complex terrain, exercise caution, and watch for signs of unstable snow. Recent avalanches, cracking, collapsing, and rapid snow/rainfall. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Dependent on aspect and elevation weak snow sits anywhere from 25 cm to 40 cm beneath a denser surface layer. Natural avalanches have already failed on this weak snow and are likely to continue to do so. Digging your hands in the snow or probing down with a pole to feel for a density change will inform you on how much dense snow is resting atop weaker, softer snow. With more loading from snow and wind, expect these slabs to break a foot or more deep in drifted areas and run fast and far.

    (3/13/2023)

    Foot deep storm slab crown on convex terrain feature. Southeast aspect near treeline. 

    Photo: S.Clairmont

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Active west and southwest winds over the last 24 hrs have had time to transport snow onto leeward aspects. The prominent location of these wind slabs are below ridgelines and wind-exposed convex terrain features.  Pockets and depressions on mid-slope faces where wind has drifted snow also remain a concern. Snow that has gradually drifted into isolated locations below treeline is possible. Watch for dense textured snow surfaces and wind pillows as areas to avoid.    

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As moisture rich snow falls and turns to rain the upper portion of the snowpack will become saturated and the water will only have one place to go. Down. The percolation of water eroding the softer snow beneath heavier snow is what causes wet-slab avalanches.  Watch for wet-loose activity and If the top layer of saturated snow exceeds above your boot top, best to avoid all steep slopes.

    (3/13/2023)

    A saturated upper layer of snow at 5,000 feet.

    Photo: E.Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

Uncertainty within snowfall totals exists for this next storm pulse. However, one thing is for certain. A lot of rapid changes will continue to occur over the next 24 hours and it's likely the snowpack will reach its threshold during that time. Don't be the straw that breaks the Camel's back.  Approach the backcountry with a conservative mind state and make no assumptions.

   Road/Recreation Status:

  • Everitt Memorial Highway is CLOSED
  • Castle Lake road is CLOSED
  • Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park - OPEN
  • Deer Mountain Snowmobile Park - OPEN
  • MS Ski Park/Nordic Center - OPEN

Regions covered