Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanches and cornice failures remain likely in exposed areas where wind-blown snow has piled up near ridges, on open slopes, and in gullies. Layers of storm snow and wet snow sluffs could also slide downhill in more sheltered terrain. Giving the snow time to adjust and stepping back into gentler terrain away from steep slopes can help avoid today's avalanche problems.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    More snow and strong winds keep adding layers of wind-blown snow on top of existing wind slabs. Wind slab avalanches have occurred every day of this storm and remain likely on slopes near ridges, open faces, and gullies today. NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects near and above treeline hold the largest and most reactive wind slabs. A few wind slabs may also lurk in below treeline areas or on other aspects due to the strength of the winds. Large, fragile cornices that can fail far from their edges loom over many slopes.

    Recent observations have shown inconsistent wind slab strength with fragile easy-to-trigger wind slabs adjacent to more stubborn wind slabs. Cornices above a slope, blowing snow, and wind-created surface textures can help identify wind-loaded slopes. Recent avalanches and snow cracking represent signs that wind slabs remain unstable. Giving wind-loaded areas a wide berth makes sense today, especially since dense wind slabs could break above a person or after someone gets onto a wind-loaded slope.

    (3/12/2023)

    Wind slab failure on a test slope on Incline Lake Peak.

    Photo: SAC

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Changing conditions during the storm have left weaknesses in the storm snow, including layers of heavier storm snow on top of lighter layers, graupel layers, and crusts. So far, signs of storm slab instability have remained limited. Still, the possibility of a storm slab avalanche exists on steep slopes, even in below treeline areas and other typically sheltered areas. Storm slabs often occur near convex rollovers on a slope. 

    Look for cracking in the storm snow and feel for different layers of snow as you travel to help identify where unstable storm snow might exist. If you see any signs of storm snow weakness or doubt a slope's stability, bypass that area for somewhere without signs of instability. 

    (3/12/2023)

    New snow instability in Johnson Canyon.

    Photo: Public

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet snow exists on slopes below ~7500 ft. Wet loose avalanches remain possible on steep slopes, especially where rain keeps falling on snow. Some of these may remain small due to the limited terrain at lower elevations, but some may entrain enough snow to cause problems for people.

    Watch for signs of unstable wet snow like rollerballs, pinwheels, and shin-deep wet snow. If signs of wet snow instability exist, move to less steep terrain. 

    (3/12/2023)

    Rollerballs and pinwheels of wet snow below 7000 ft on Rubicon.

    Photo: SAC

Avalanche Discussion

  • There were more signs of unstable wind slabs yesterday, including test slope failures and cracking in wind-loaded areas on the West Shore, Donner Summit, and Mt. Rose backcountry.
  • Large cornices exist along many ridges. Ski kicks well away from the edges of cornices above test slopes caused cornice failures yesterday.
  • Ski cuts triggered roller balls and pinwheels of wet snow below 7000 ft on the West Shore yesterday, and snowmobilers reported wet snow to 7800 ft in the Blue Lakes area. 

Poor visibility and stormy conditions have limited observations of larger terrain. Many larger slopes have likely avalanched, refilled, and slid again during this storm. Some uncertainty exists about how the deep and complex snowpack will react to this large load.

Regions covered