Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Human-triggered wind slab avalanches will be possible near and above treeline today. Strong winds and new snow last night have continued through the morning, creating firm wind slabs and scoured slopes. Expect the most dangerous avalanche conditions on North through East aspects near and above treeline--in starting zones, on the leeward side of ridgelines, and rock outcroppings.

Travelers should assess carefully before stepping out onto avalanche terrain and should watch for signs of instability, such as cracking or a hollow-sounding snowpack.

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    High winds associated with yesterday's storm have once again scoured the upper elevations of the San Francisco Peaks, leaving firm wind slabs in some sheltered locations.  This primarily West and Southwest wind has gusted as high as 65 mph.  Much of the snow available for transport has been sublimated to the upper atmosphere, but some has settled on the leeward side of terrain features.  These slabs will likely be hardened and unreactive, but decreasing wind speed, to those ideal for wind slab formation, could result in more reactive wind slabs.  Look for signs of wind loading and avoid common areas of wind deposition, such as those on the leeward side of terrain features, like ridges and rock outcroppings. 

Avalanche Discussion

Thursday's storm has perhaps resulted in more wind than snow.  Storm totals measured just 5" at 10,800 feet at the Arizona Snowbowl, and 3" at the Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL.  While there was plenty of wind yesterday, overall velocity is expected to decrease throughout today to speeds just slight of those ideal for wind slab formation.  Wind direction has shifted from the Southwest to West.  Keep an eye on fresh wind slab on top of yesterday's wind board that could be more sensitive to triggering.  Winds were gusting directly uphill on most west-facing slopes sending newly deposited snow into the Inner Basin.  Many slopes are likely to be scoured. 

In sheltered areas below treeline the avalanche hazard is low.  Be mindful, though, as these lower elevation slopes also received heavy amounts of wind and could have some sensitive wind slabs on the leeward side of ridgelines and the edges of open areas.  On West facing aspects, incoming wind may have deposited snow on sun crusts.   These could be areas where wind slab avalanches may be more reactive or where small dry loose avalanches might be initiated by a skier or rider.  Use caution in these locations, especially if terrain traps are present. 

In general, the snow is deep and remains cold, but conditions are also variable--especially above treeline  As visibility improves, remember to look for recent avalanches and heed to any signs of instability.  

Regions covered