Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist at all elevations as human-triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible.  Very strong winds and a foot of snow over the last several days have created sensitive wind slabs on the surface.  These wind slabs can be large on their own, however, they could step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. Deeper down in the snowpack, facets, and depth hoar near the ground continue to linger and have reached the tipping point on some slopes from the recent loading.   These persistent slab avalanches would be large taking with it most of the season's snowpack. Avoid slopes where you find obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses or shooting cracks. Cautious route-finding is essential as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance away, avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Below and near treeline terrain continues to remain the sweet spot for triggering a persistent slab avalanche that will fail on a facet and depth hoar layer near the ground.  Recently formed slabs rest on top of a very weak snowpack that was shallow prior to this last storm.   These avalanches would be large and could be 4 to 6 deep and able to propagate widely across the slope or terrain features. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like loud thunderous collapses and shooting cracks. Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from the slopes below.  

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Very strong winds have been drifting snow into sensitive wind slabs mainly near and above treeline.  With the box canyon effect we see in our mountains here, winds have been swirling and either upsloping or loading slopes.  Wind-drifted slabs could be over 2 feet thick on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Watch for obvious wind-loaded pillows and stiffening of the surface underfoot, avoiding slopes that are actively loading. With such strong winds you may find loading further down the slope than you'd typically find.   Shooting cracks on the surface are an indication that you've found unstable snow.  Triggering a slab on the surface has the possibility to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.

Avalanche Discussion

Wednesday/Thursday's storm brought 12 inches of snow, 1.27" of snow water equivalent (SWE)  and very strong winds with a peak wind gust in the 80's.  Very strong winds have continued into Friday out WSW and have been in the 20 to 40 mph range with gusts in the 60 -80's.  Strong SW winds are expected to continue today under mostly cloudy skies and lingering light snow showers.    Winds look to calm down Saturday but will pick back up again as the next storm system enters NM on Sunday bringing another round of snow.

Visibility has been tough to come by but there were many natural avalanches from Wednesday's storm with peak instability most likely Wednesday afternoon/evening. There was a large natural avalanche below treeline coming close to a house on Twinning Road Wednesday evening from uncompacted inbounds terrain (similar to backcountry). This avalanche ran on the ground and was about 40 meters wide. There was another large avalanche on a west aspect out of the Peace Sign above the Williams lake trail.  

The below and near treeline terrain is where many slopes prior to this latest storm had a shallow snowpack with facets and depth hoar that continued to linger from November snow and had been slow to heal or strengthen. Recent loading and a more connected and reactive slab on the surface have reactivated these layers and pushed them to their tipping point on some slopes. At upper elevations,  many, but not all slopes had a deeper snowpack prior to this last storm and these deeper buried weak layers had been showing signs of healing or were more difficult to trigger, buried underneath hard slabs from previous strong wind events.   At this upper elevation, it may be more difficult to trigger a deeper persistent slab avalanche, than areas at lower elevations, however if you were to hit a sweet spot, the consequences could be catastrophic. Avalanche paths that have already run this year, could also be more susceptible to sliding again. 

Very strong WSW winds have been drifting snow, loading slopes, and creating wind slabs mainly near and above treeline. Although  below treeline is not highlighted in the rose, you can still find slopes with wind-drifted snow at this elevation, especially in open and exposed terrain. Winds have been swirling and at time felt like they were coming from every which direction. Yesterday these slabs were very sensitive and reactive in travels and I expect that trend to continue today as winds have continued to remain very strong.  Sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes overhead will provide safer skiing and riding options. 

  

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