Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. TRAVELING IN AND AROUND AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED.  NATURAL AND HUMAN-TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE VERY LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE AVALANCHES CAPABLE OF BEING VERY LARGE, DESTRUCTIVE, AND MOST LIKELY NOT SURVIVABLE.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Heavy snowfall and strong winds are rapidly loading slopes and most likely will overwhelm weak facets and depth hoar that continue to linger near the ground on many slopes. These persistent slab avalanches are likely at all elevations and could be very large and unsurvivable running long distances well into the flats as it takes with it most of the season's snowpack and are able to propagate widely across the slopes and terrain features.   These avalanches can happen spontaneously during the storm or be triggered from a long distance away from the slopes below.   

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy snowfall and very strong winds have created storm slabs at all elevations and aspects.  We've already seen small natural avalanche activity on Tuesday from these storm slabs. With more snow and wind these slabs will be growing in size and may be 3 to 4 feet thick come Wednesday on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features at upper elevations.  These slabs have not been bonding well to the old existing surface which consisted of crusts and near-surface facets.  With brief lulls, changing temperatures during the storms, and periods of graupel falling from the sky, we may see storm slabs running on density changes within the new snow. These storm slabs will be dangerous on their own however, a more likely scenario is that these storm slabs on the surface are going to step down into deeper weak layers creating very large and dangerous avalanches that could take with them most of the season's snowpack.

Avalanche Discussion

An Avalanche Warning is in effect tonight through Thursday morning. Traveling in and around avalanche terrain is not recommended.  Back-to-back significant storms are bringing a one-two punch and rapidly loading slopes. Snow totals from Monday night through Tuesday at 4 pm are in the 12 - 15" range and 1.3" of snow water equivalent. Westerly winds have been in the high teens and 20's with gusts in the 30's.  An additional 1 to 2 feet of snow is forecasted overnight through Wednesday with strong winds overnight out of the SW shifting to the SE Wednesday during the day.  We've seen several natural avalanches during the day Tuesday with widespread signs of instability from shooting cracks and loud audible collapses. I'd expect peak instability to happen sometime overnight to early morning as the 2nd storm ramps up.  With heavy snowfall and transportable wind speeds continuing through the day on Wednesday, avalanche danger will remain high at all elevations.

 

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