Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Although the natural cycle has ended, dangerous avalanche conditions continue because our buried weak layers are wide awake.  It will be fairly easy to trigger slabs breaking near the ground on steep slopes facing west, north, and east.   Nuking winds yesterday afternoon were also forming dense wind slabs on the southern side of the compass.   Let the snowpack adjust after this winter's biggest storm by making conservative terrain choices.   The safest travel is on low-angle slopes or wind-sheltered southerly aspects.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    The past week of snowfall and wind drifting has formed sensitive slabs up to several feet thick over weak layers near the ground.  These buried facets and faceted crusts are most prevalent on the north half of the compass and some higher-elevation southeast aspects.  Shooting cracks and collapses are clear warnings to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees.  You can remotely trigger one of these avalanches while traveling near or below steep terrain.   You can avoid persistent slabs by traveling on slopes that were bare ground through November.  

    An example of a remotely triggered persistent slab in upper Yule Creek.  

    (12/6/2025)

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday's strong northwest winds formed thick, dense drifts on leeward terrain features.  Wind slabs formed below alpine ridgelines, in cross-loaded gullies, and behind abrupt terrain breaks.  They're most common at higher elevations, but also formed in exposed low elevations from down valley winds.  Avoid steep slopes where you find thicker, stiffer drifts of snow. Although shooting cracks are clear warning signs, expect more variable feedback, as these drifts are trending towards more stubborn sensitivity today.  Travel in wind-eroded or wind-sheltered terrain to avoid this problem.

    A small wind slab above Slate River Road that formed from down valley winds yesterday.  Expect wind slabs to be larger at higher elevations.  (12/6/2025) Photo: Whitney Gilliam

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's atmospheric river event produced our biggest loading event of the season: up to 1.5" of SWE paired with strong to extreme winds.  Observations yesterday were clustered from below treeline and pointed towards a snowpack reaching its tipping point.  Hopefully, we'll get visibility today and a view of the larger, more extensive avalanche activity we expect at higher elevations.   Now that all the new snow from the past week has settled or been drifted into a more cohesive slab, avalanche behavior is becoming more challenging to manage. There's now potential for longer remote triggers and wider propagation across terrain features.   Our thin, early-season coverage further complicates risk management.  Though rocks, logs, and underbrush still anchor some of our lower elevation slopes, a triggered slide will break near the ground and drag you through these same obstacles (see this observation and video from Snodgrass).   If you're looking to travel where you don't have to manage this challenging problem, comb through our snow coverage photos from the last week of November.  The slopes that were bare in late November lack our problematic weak layer.  You'll still need to manage for lingering storm instabilities - most commonly wind drifts- in these areas.  

If you're just getting caught up on our snowpack setup, check out our weekly snowpack summaries published every Friday. 

Upcoming Events:   

  • Practice your rescue skills today at the free Beacon Brush-Up: Sunday, December 7th, 9 am - 2 pm at the Community School.
  • Huge thank you to all of our sponsors, speakers, event organizers, and guests for another great Avalanche Awareness Night!

Regions covered