Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Keep those tips up as you travel through the shallow snowpack, as there are many "sharks" or ground hazards waiting to strike. As you climb higher in elevation, the next hazard to manage will be the potential to human trigger a slab avalanche, most commonly near previously wind-loaded terrain features, or in northerly facing alpine bowls. Obvious signs of instability are becoming less common as we move further away from the last natural avalanche cycle that occurred on Sunday into Monday. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Persistent weak layers are fairly widespread across multiple aspects. The more isolated component of the avalanche problem is the distribution of slabs above those weak layers. Use caution around previously wind-loaded terrain features and higher-elevation concave bowls, where there is an increased chance of finding those slabs. Human-triggered avalanches are possible where you find this strong over weak layering. A triggered avalanche will most likely be small in size, but in very isolated areas, there could be enough mass for a large avalanche to occur. 

    An example of a natural avalanche observed on Monday (northeast-facing above treeline).  You can trigger a similar avalanche on wind-drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass today. (12/1/2025)

Avalanche Discussion

A layer of weak snow is fairly continuous on the north side of the compass from snowfall in October and mid-November.  A storm last Sunday, November 30th, deposited 8 to 16 inches of snow across this weak layer, accompanied by northwesterly winds strong enough to redistribute the snow at upper elevations.   A small natural cycle was documentedon Monday, and signs of instability were observed following that storm earlier this week. (Anthracites, Mount Baldy, Baxter Basin).  More snow accumulated in the Northwest Mountains and at upper elevations, so the more likely place to trigger an avalanche is in these areas. Lower elevations below roughly 10,000 feet and in the Southeast Mountains received less snowfall, reducing the threat of avalanches. 

Total snow depths are shallow, as we have a well below average snowpack. The snow that accumulated at the start of the week is settling, but not really gaining strength, as temperatures have remained cold and temperature gradients are going to be strong in that shallow snowpack. So this circles back to the current conditions where we have a lot of soft, and/or weak snow, with a more isolated distribution of slabs above that weak snow. We haven't had any field observations from the SE Mountains this week, as access to enough snow to ski and ride is difficult. All the observations this week have come from parts of the Ruby Range where it is a little easier to access enough snow to ride, mostly where that snow is sitting on smooth grassy ground cover. 

Looking towards the end of the week, get ready for avalanche conditions to get spicier, with another reactive avalanche cycle on the horizon from the incoming storm. 

Upcoming Events: 

  • Holiday Tree Sale: December 3rd-5th from 3 pm-7 pm at Ace Hardware
  • Avalanche Awareness Night: Saturday, December 6th at the Center for the Arts. Doors at 5, show at 6:30.
  • Beacon Brush-Up: Sunday, December 7th, 9 am - 2 pm at the Community School

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